Under-siege Chelsea won't miss Spanish duo
The absence of Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas is a blow, but Jose Mourinho is a home-win specialist
Jose Mourinho may have returned to Chelsea as the "Happy One", but now there is a scowl on his face and a siege mentality at Stamford Bridge for the crucial showdown with Manchester City.
The mood has darkened considerably in the build-up to City's visit. First there was the FA Cup upset against Bradford, then the injury to Cesc Fabregas and disciplinary procedures against Diego Costa after a typically fiery encounter with Liverpool in the League Cup semi-final.
Mourinho likes to play the conspiracy theorist and has had plenty to occupy him this week, but no doubt most of his disquiet stemmed from the prospect of facing City without two of his most effective players.
[Mourinho] is a master at winning at home: at Chelsea (80 per cent win rate in the league); Inter (76 per cent); and Real Madrid (86 per cent)
Costa has scored 17 league goals - one-third of Chelsea's total - while Fabregas has contributed 15 assists. Oscar (six goals, seven assists) and Eden Hazard (eight goals, four assists) also have made big contributions, but the two Spain internationals have been the most visible flagbearers.
They have linked up for five of Chelsea's league goals and have been involved in 29 altogether (either by scoring or assisting); 11 of the 20 Premier League teams have not even scored 29 goals.
The absence of those two key players would be a blow, but maybe not a game-changer. Mourinho is extremely versatile in terms of tactics and beat City twice in the league last season before the summer arrivals of Costa and Fabregas.
Chelsea have won all 10 home games in the league this season (although four out of seven in other competitions) and that is largely to do with how Mourinho sets up his team, as well as the players he recruits.
He is a master at winning at home: at Chelsea (80 per cent win rate in the league); Inter (76 per cent); and Real Madrid (86 per cent). He appears to target home wins against his main rivals (he has two out of two against other teams from the big six this season, five out of five last season) while being happy enough with a draw on the road (five out of nine since last season).
That makes Chelsea well worth backing at home and there are particular reasons to be positive against City.
Manuel Pellegrini's side have won only two out of six this season away to teams in the Champions League or the top half of the Premier League; both came in the only games where they kept a clean sheet. Shutting out Chelsea will be difficult and it is a dangerous strategy to take on Mourinho's sides on their own turf.
Pellegrini's record against Mourinho suggests he is tactically inferior, although he managed Malaga in their Spanish encounters while Mourinho had Real's stars.
Another negative for City is Yaya Toure's call-up for the Africa Cup of Nations. Since he left, City have drawn once and lost twice, scoring just one goal. In domestic competition this season, they have won only once in six games without him, although their Champions League wins over Bayern Munich and Roma were both achieved when he was unavailable.
Chelsea are probably the best bet on this weekend's Premier League programme, followed by Tottenham at West Brom where the odds may overvalue the Tony Pulis factor.
Picking winners in the relegation clashes is not easy, but Burnley have a decent chance at big odds away to Sunderland.
They have the fewest defeats in games involving the bottom six (one out of six) while Sunderland have not won in five in that category, failing to score in four.
Frankfurt, Sampdoria
