“I am not expecting a miracle – Hong Kong is not cheap to start with – coupled with the weak renminbi, that makes products even more expensive,” said Simon Lee Siu-Po, an honorary fellow at the Asia-Pacific Institute of Business at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

He added that the city also faced keen competition from alternative destinations.

Immigration officials predicted a week before the start of the mainland holiday that the first day would see peak travel at land border crossings, with a million trips in and out of the city on May 1 alone.

The city was expected to have 5.9 million arrivals and departures over the golden week period.

“We shouldn’t be looking only at the quantity of tourists,” Lee said. “The spending patterns have changed.

“On top of this, mainland tourists might not necessarily come to Hong Kong – those who have spending power might choose to go to Hainan or overseas to Thailand and Japan.”

“The mainland tourists coming to Hong Kong are not necessarily the big spenders,” Ma said. “Locals these days have made spending across the border a habit, so it’s an unknown whether business will improve.

“The rainy weather might play a part as well.”

She predicted a worse financial performance this year relative to last year’s holiday, with a 20 to 30 per cent drop in business.

She said her restaurants, which specialise in cuisine from Chiu Chow, Guangdong province, were offering value set meals to help attract diners.

Hong Kong tourism sector hoping for 30% bump in visitors over ‘golden week’

Harbour Fun Restaurant and Bar, which offers a range of Western and Japanese dishes, also said it was not optimistic about business over the holiday.

The restaurant, on the Wan Chai promenade, will command an unobstructed view of a spectacular Victoria Harbour fireworks display on May 1 and offer a special menu at HK$560 (US$72), but its manager was still not confident that it would be booked out.

“Our restaurant filled up previously when there were fireworks displays,” said the manager, who only gave the surname Ma. “But now, because the government has announced more frequent fireworks displays, they are no longer as attractive.”

A 10-minute fireworks display at 8pm over Victoria Harbour is designed to be a highlight to kick off golden week.

Ma added that the forecast of rain for the day of the fireworks also put a cloud over business prospects.

He said he expected a drop of 30 per cent in takings compared with the last Labour Day golden week.

He was also unsure whether his restaurant would benefit from the arrivals and urged the government to promote the Wan Chai promenade more to attract not only mainland tourists, but also visitors from overseas.

Michael Leung Chun-wah, the owner of the Lucky Dragon Palace Restaurant, said the influx of mainland visitors could potentially benefit establishments in tourist areas but not those elsewhere.

“Our restaurant is based in Ngau Chi Wan in a housing estate,” Leung said. “The droves of tourists in Hong Kong will not come all the way to us to eat, so they won’t be of help to our business.”

Sky’s the limit as Hong Kong rolls out red carpet for Labour Day ‘golden week’

William So Man-sing, the general manager of London Restaurant, a dim sum house in Mong Kok, said it would be “extremely fortunate” if business was as good as it had been in previous May holidays.

So said the bad weather, the university exams season and the Hong Kong public’s preference to travel to Shenzhen had all contributed to a downturn in business.

He added that predicted bad weather could also mean tourists would rather stay put and look after their homes and families as rain hit the mainland.

“We can never compete on price with the mainland,” So said.

“The important thing is to deliver quality and service, as well as highlight what they can’t taste on the mainland.”

Tourism minister Kevin Yeung Yun-hung on Sunday warned visitors to be “mentally prepared” for last-minute changes to the holiday fireworks display schedule.

“We may not know whether the evening fireworks show will be affected until the afternoon of May 1, as it is a rain issue,” he said.

“We hope that tourists coming to Hong Kong will be mentally prepared … that some performances may not be able to be held.”