Why China’s local officials will remain caught in zero-Covid ‘paradox’
- Local governments face ‘inherently contradictory’ task of balancing coronavirus controls and economic challenges without policy support, analysts say
- Beijing names and shames cities for excessive Covid-19 measures while punishing others for not doing enough
“The problem is highly paradoxical. The heads of local government cadres are set to roll, either by overdoing Covid containment or failing to contain it,” said Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong.
Several Omicron sublineages are circulating globally, including in China, and are expected to cause new surges because of their ability to spread fast and evade immunity from vaccines and past infections.
“Technically speaking, it is simply impossible to contain the spread of Omicron without intensive measures,” Jin said.
For months, the State Council has reiterated its “nine forbids” – a set of rules banning arbitrary restrictions on movement and quarantine, refusing patients in critical condition and other measures. But the warnings seem to have fallen on deaf ears as draconian restrictions persist across the country.
Analysts pointed out that the stalemate was in part attributable to the power structure in China, which gives immense power to local governments on issues such as disease control.
Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, said Chinese law stipulates that local authorities are to be in charge of health matters, but the Joint Prevention Control Mechanism, which is staffed by the National Health Commission, provides policy guidance. “It’s much harder for them to enforce against provincial leaders,” he said.
Officials targeted include some once praised by Beijing as model civil servants, including Zhang Zheng, former party chief of Chengguan district in Lhasa, the regional capital of Tibet. Zhang was dismissed from office in August after a spike in cases in the city. Last year, he was among 103 “outstanding county chiefs” across the country recognised to commemorate the Communist Party’s centenary.
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An official’s record on fighting Covid-19 has become one of the key factors considered for promotion, according to a recent report by Xinhua documenting how delegates to the 20th party congress were selected.
Beijing also considered the fight against Covid-19 when it picked its newly formed Central Committee, which now seats the party’s 205 most powerful people, said Xinhua.
“The quest for zero-Covid is a deeply challenging problem in the sense that Xi [Jinping] has emphasised the importance of achieving zero but also minimising its costs. This has made finding a balance between the [zero-Covid] goal and promoting and stabilising the economy extraordinarily difficult,” Yang said.
“This is inherently contradictory in the sense that the existing policy tools are not adequate for achieving zero-Covid,” he added.
“With an ill-advised and outdated decision model coming from the top, a lack of transparency and demonisation of Covid that has turned the Chinese population extremely fearful and ignorant over a disease that is not even as severe as influenza nowadays, China is stuck in a very sticky situation,” Jin said.
“China would be much better positioned to transition out of zero-Covid if it would channel one-tenth of its financial resources away from mass testing towards stepping up vaccination rates for the elderly and stockpiling antiviral medicine. But what they are basically doing now is all anti-science.”
Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said it was only natural for local cadres to practise self-preservation, and local authorities should not be used as scapegoats for confusing policy goals set out by the central government.
“This is chaos created by the central government with its ambiguous and yet demanding policy goals without adequate support for local governments. It seems the State Council is trying to fend off external criticism by shifting the blame to local governments,” Wu said.