What does it take to get promoted in Chinese politics? Up-and-comers offer clues
- Those with regional leadership experience, technical backgrounds and ties to the top most likely to ascend the Communist Party ranks, observers say
- Loyalty still matters, but those closest to Xi are ‘not necessarily tied to any particular ideological position’, according to Chinese politics expert
The Communist Party is set to hold its 20th national congress in mid-October, a gathering that will usher in a new line-up of the party’s leadership. In the third piece in a three-part series exploring the rules of the personnel reshuffle, Mimi Lau looks at the shared traits among those likely to be promoted to key national positions.
In February 2020, the Communist Party faced one of its worst crises in three decades as the deadly coronavirus, first detected in the central Chinese province of Hubei, rapidly spread across the country, and a poor initial response fuelled rare public discontent.
Meanwhile, 63-year-old Chen is an expert on maintaining social stability after three decades in Xi’s old power base of Zhejiang province and is considered a key lieutenant to the Chinese president.
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In addition to their ability to handle crisis, the men sent to battle the virus in Hubei share other traits now seen as requirements for top party positions: a proven record of competency, the ability to earn Xi’s trust, a highly educated background and strong regional leadership experience.
“Their experience in managing major municipalities and provinces and extensive record in politics and law have shown Xi’s very clear preferences when it comes to personnel, especially in times of a national crisis,” said Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago.
Many poised for top spots also share close connections to Xi and his trusted aides and have professional expertise in areas such as technology and business.
Several of Xi’s former associates in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces are expected to be promoted to even higher positions at the congress, according to Alfred Wu, an associate professor at National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
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He Lifeng, who is in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission, is seen as a top contender to enter the Politburo, which currently has 25 members. He was Xiamen’s financial chief when Xi was the city’s deputy mayor in charge of finance from 1985 to 1988. He also served as Tianjin’s deputy party chief and the head of its political consultative conference.
“There shouldn’t be any surprises that He Lifeng will take over from Liu He,” Wu said. Liu, a vice-premier, has served as Xi’s economic tsar for the past five years but is now 70 – past the usual retirement age for Politburo members.
Some other regional chiefs are also seen as strong candidates for advancement, even though they did not work directly with Xi before he became president. Guangdong party boss Li Xi previously served as Liaoning’s party chief and was secretary to Gansu party chief Li Ziqi, a close associate of Xi’s father Xi Zhongxun. Fujian party secretary Yin Li and Shanghai mayor Gong Zheng are also in the running for promotions.
“The two Lis [Li Qiang and Li Xi] are leading candidates for the next Politburo Standing Committee, and others rank top for the next Politburo,” Cheng Li, director of the Brookings Institution’s John L Thornton China Centre, wrote in a commentary for the China-US Focus website in March.
Apart from placing confidants in key government jobs, Xi has also installed many people he trusts in positions overseeing the management of party affairs, according to Tsai Wen-Hsuan, a researcher with the Taiwan-based Academia Sinica’s Institute of Political Science.
But analysts noted that education alone was not enough, as cadres with expertise in science and technology, military and finance and leadership experience in state enterprises have been favoured for their ability to spearhead Xi’s global technological ambitions.
As Xi pushes for technological innovation to rival the United States and achieve China’s goal of becoming a modern socialist society, state enterprise executives from the aerospace and military industries have increasingly been appointed to ministerial and regional chief positions.
According to a tally by the Post, 33 out of 62 top provincial officials hold engineering and science degrees, while 13 have backgrounds in social science such as Marxist political theory and nine others have economics or finance degrees.
Zhejiang party chief Yuan Jiajun and Hunan party chief Zhang Qingwei were both aerospace engineers, while Zhang Guoqing, former chief executive of military contractor North Industries, one of China’s biggest defence conglomerates, is Liaoning’s party chief.
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Shandong party chief Li Ganjie and Beijing mayor Chen Jining are both leading experts on environmental protection, while Fujian party chief Yin Li and Hainan party chief Shen Xiaoming are both doctors.
Yang of the University of Chicago said the technocrats’ appointments showed that their discipline and avoidance of political manoeuvres had won Xi’s favour.
“Their quasi-military management style – especially among former executives with aerospace and military industry backgrounds – means they are likely to be more obedient and insulated from external influences such as corruption,” Yang said, adding that those were qualities Xi was after.
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“A close look at the career patterns of these [1970s generation] rising stars reveals that many of them have had broader leadership experience in China’s flagship enterprises or major financial institutions,” the Brookings Institution’s Cheng wrote in an analysis published in May.
Among the 108 highest-ranking leaders born since the 1970s, 86 of them – or 79.6 per cent – serve as vice-governors and members of provincial party standing committees. Of those 86, more than half have primarily advanced their careers in industrial enterprises or financial institutions rather than local administrations, he added.
Loyalty still counts when it comes to promotions. In the words of Chen Xi, the head of the party’s Central Organisation Department, “cadre loyalty remains the soul of politics”.
In the final run-up to the congress, senior officials have rushed to pledge allegiance to Xi’s absolute leadership and governance doctrines, exalting him as a “beacon”, “compass” and “fulcrum”.
However, while political loyalty remains important for all leaders, it is difficult to measure, as breaking with Xi’s policy would result in damage to one’s political career, according to Rana Mitter, professor of modern Chinese history and politics at the University of Oxford.
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“Loyalty in the Xi era is highly tied to demonstrable devotion to the top leader personally, which was somewhat similar to that with the era under Mao [Zedong]. But loyalty [then] was combined with a fairly clear ideological agenda, notably Soviet-style economics in the 1950s and violent class struggle in the 1960s,” Mitter said.
“In the Xi era, ideology is in flux, with new gestures toward concepts as varied as global tech ambition and a return to a reinterpreted traditional Chinese philosophy. So figures who are perceived to be close to Xi are not necessarily tied to any particular ideological position,” he added.
“I would measure a cadre’s loyalty perhaps by seeing how much he or she uses terms that are specific to Xi. Take last summer for instance, that might have been ‘common prosperity’.”