As Guatemala considers trade ties with mainland China, Taiwanese warned to worry about loss of allies
- Foreign Minister Carlos Ramiro Martinez says his country is looking to find a Chinese market for Guatemalan products
- Public must understand Taiwan’s small allies are important in helping raise motions in UN, says academic
Taiwan started the year with 13 formal allies. With the loss of Nauru, that number fell to 12 last month, and now another – Guatemala – could be about to make the switch in diplomatic recognition to Beijing.
It is a change that does not seem to faze the island’s public but some politicians and observers warn that people should be worried about the growing prospect of Taiwan’s allies dwindling to single digits – or even zero.
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Guatemalan Foreign Minister Carlos Ramiro Martinez told Reuters this week his country was mulling the possibility of developing formal trade ties with Beijing, although it would “continue working with Taiwan at the levels we have been doing”.
Martinez said Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, who assumed office in mid-January, “pointed out that we cannot ignore the weight and power China represents”.
“We are interested in approaching them to try and develop some relationship around trade,” Martinez said, saying this could materialise as an “office of trade interests” that would help find a Chinese market for Guatemalan products.
“We are making it public, this is not an ambush against Taiwan or the United States.”
The public should be warned of the consequences that when Taiwan’s diplomatic allies are down to zero, in legal terms, Taiwan will no longer maintain its sovereignty
Martinez’s comments have triggered concern from politicians in Taiwan that it might be a sign Guatemala plans to follow Nauru in switching recognition to Beijing, especially after the mainland said such ties would only be possible if Guatemala broke formal relations with the island.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry said the new Guatemalan government’s desire to develop trade ties with Beijing did not conflict with its policy of maintaining diplomatic relations with the island.
But Johnny Chiang, deputy speaker of the island’s legislature, said on Thursday the island’s government must not be complacent about the latest development in Guatemala, especially when Taiwan was left with just 12 allies, including the Vatican.
“After Nauru broke ties with us, there have been reports that Tuvalu might switch recognition to the mainland, and now there is a warning sign from Guatemala. With just 12 allies, we must not let our guard down, or we might end up becoming an international orphan,” Chiang said.
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But the Taiwanese public has appeared undisturbed, with some viewing changes among the island’s allies as nothing unusual.
“It is no big deal. We have been seeing this in the past few decades,” said Ho Ming-yi, a computer software engineer.
Ho said that as long as Taiwan remained internationally visible, losing impoverished countries such as Nauru or Guatemala would “only serve Taiwan well as we no longer need to waste our money in funding them”.
Ho’s view is widely held in Taiwan, with signs that many increasingly believe there is nothing wrong with the number of the allies falling to zero.
Most opinion polls in Taiwan show that while 80 per cent of the island’s people believe Beijing is to blame for the switch, at least 60 per cent remain indifferent to the possible impact of the changes.
Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei, said years of diplomatic snubs by Beijing had caused Taiwanese to become used to the shifting allegiances.
“People here have been repeatedly fed with such news and have become increasingly insensitive to the switch,” he said.
Huang said the ruling Democratic Progressive Party government should take responsibility for the public’s indifference because it had kept telling people that Beijing caused the island to lose its allies but did not explain the consequences of the losses.
“The public should be warned of the consequences that when Taiwan’s diplomatic allies are down to zero, in legal terms, Taiwan will no longer maintain its sovereignty as no countries in the world will recognise it,” Huang said.
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Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei think tank, said it was important for Taiwan to be able to maintain a certain number of allies to uphold its sovereignty.
“Some people might think keeping substantive ties with the United States and its major allies should fare better than maintaining official ties with small and impoverished countries. This is very wrong,” Lo said.
He said the US and other major countries with no official ties with Taiwan could not replace Taiwan’s small allies in raising motions in the United Nations to support Taiwan’s participation in international organisations and the bigger nations could not officially recognise Taiwan as a “country”.
Beijing views Taiwan as its territory that must be reunited by force if necessary. It has warned countries with which it has diplomatic relations against forging official contacts with the island.
Like most countries, the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons for its defence.
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Beijing has called Lai an “obstinate separatist” who would bring the risk of war to the island.
Another contender, Seve Paeniu, said diplomatic ties should be reviewed to decide whether Taipei or Beijing could best respond to his country’s needs.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry, however, said its understanding was that most of those elected “support the maintenance of the friendship between the two sides”.
