China's Xi Jinping to meet Philippines leader Benigno Aquino at Apec - but territorial disputes unlikely to be resolved
Concessions on territorial claims unlikely, but Beijing and Manila may agree to look into crisis management system and boost economic ties
The presidents of China and the Philippines are to sit down for their first official talks this week on the sidelines of a regional economic summit amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
Few concessions would be made by either side on territorial claims, but they might agree to look into a risk management mechanism and strengthen economic ties, analysts said.
READ MORE: I’m taking Xi to a Chinese restaurant if he visits Manila, says Aquino
President Xi Jinping will join 20 other heads of states – including Barack Obama and Shinzo Abe – at the two-day Apec leaders’ meeting that begins on Wednesday in Manila. It will be Xi’s first trip to the Philippines since becoming president in 2013, and most likely the final opportunity for its leader, Benigno Aquino, to hold bilateral talks with Xi before Aquino leaves office in June next year.
Except for the Philippines, Xi has visited all other major Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, in the past two years.
At the same time last year in Beijing, Xi and Aquino had a brief discussion as they walked to the conference centre on the last day of the summit.
They would have “at least a short meeting” on the sidelines of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit this time, said Li Mingjiang from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“Aquino certainly has the interest to engage with Xi in a formal meeting,” Li said. “It’d be inappropriate for Xi to decline such an arrangement while he is the guest in Manila.”
“There is genuine fear in China that Aquino will not behave himself, especially after the president compared China to Nazi Germany,” said Heydarian. “Aquino is quite known as a leader who can be a little bit of a loose cannon when it comes to diplomatic matters.”
Manila appears to have got the message – it assured foreign minister Wang Yi during his visit to the Philippines last week that Aquino would be a “hospitable host” and set aside the territorial disputes during the summit.
That said, Manila would not stop other countries from discussing issues that they considered important, a Philippine foreign affairs spokesman said.
When the two leaders held the talks in Manila, South China Sea issues would inevitably be on the table, Professor Li said.
Beijing claims most of the sea, with a nine-dash line stretching deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia.
The map on the new Chinese passport includes Scarborough Shoal – or Huangyan Island – which is also claimed by the Philippines.
Ties soured in 2012 when the Philippine Navy tried to apprehend mainland Chinese fishing vessels near Scarborough Shoal.
The next year, Manila took China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Beijing still refuses to recognise the case, though the court ruled last month it had jurisdiction to hear the Philippines’ claims.
Ian Storey, a senior fellow with the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said the Xi-Aquino talks were unlikely to be a substantive discussion about the territorial dispute, with both sides repeating their long-standing positions.
“China wants the Philippines to withdraw its arbitration case at The Hague to improve bilateral ties,” Storey said.
“But the Aquino administration has invested so much political capital, and money, into the case that the chances of Manila withdrawing it are close to zero.”
Though concession was not an option, the two leaders could “at the very minimum do what Abe and Xi did at Apec last year” – agree to disagree on the sovereignty issue, pledge not to allow the disputes to define bilateral relations, and push for a crisis management system, said Heydarian.
Despite a war of words about the Diaoyu Islands – referred to by Japan as the Senkaku Islands – Beijing and Tokyo are negotiating a crisis management mechanism. But Beijing and Manila have no comparable mechanism to avoid accidental clashes.
It was the “most urgent issue” for the leaders, Heydarian said.
China wants the Philippines to withdraw its arbitration case at The Hague to improve bilateral ties
The Philippines’ potential role in the China-initiated Maritime Silk Road economic cooperation project and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) would be another focus of their discussion, he added. Manila has deferred joining the AIIB.
“Aquino will ask for assurance that the AIIB will be up to global standards, and Xi will try to say [that as he has come] all the way to Apec maybe [the Philippines] should show some sincerity in joining the AIIB,” Heydarian said.
Xi might also use the trip to wave olive branches to presidential candidates and the public in the Philippines, Li added.
Heydarian said the last thing Beijing wanted was to become the “bogeyman” in the upcoming presidential election and see electoral candidates taking tough stands on China-related issues.
In the Philippines, it was harder for Beijing to sweep the disputes under the carpet and let its money do the talking – as it had done elsewhere, he said.
The Philippines feared that if China were to gain an economic foothold in the country, it would try to leverage its influence to force Manila into concessions on sovereignty issues, he said.
