China pork imports hit all-time high over supply concerns as US soybean imports surge 320 per cent

China’s pork imports jumped to an all-time high in March on supply concerns following a resurgence of African swine fever in the world’s biggest consumer and producer
China’s imports of soybean from Brazil plunged to the lowest level since January 2017 in March, but US bean imports hit the highest monthly total since December 2016 last month

China trade

ReutersandBloomberg

Published: 2:18pm, 20 Apr 2021

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China’s pork imports jumped to an all-time high in March on supply concerns following a resurgence of African swine fever in the world’s biggest consumer and producer.

Inbound shipments increased 16 per cent from a year earlier to 460,000 tonnes, boosting overall meat imports to a record as well, according to customs data on Sunday. Purchases in the first quarter advanced 22 per cent to 1.16 million tonnes, data showed.

Hog herds could have contracted by as much as 30 per cent from November, said Pan Chenjun, senior livestock analyst with Rabobank, as winter diseases, including new strains of African swine fever,hit the country’s farms. Hog inventories may currently be 60 per cent to 70 per cent of normal, Pan estimated.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s hog inventory totaled 415.95 million by the end of March, about 30 per cent more than a year earlier. That compares with 411 million hogs at the end of the first quarter of 2017, indicating that numbers have recovered to levels before the outbreak of the deadly swine disease in 2018, bureau data showed.

African swine fever still ‘major risk factor’ for China

Imports, driven partly by state purchases, will remain strong in May as traders anticipate a rebound in domestic pork prices, which have been falling recently partly as a result of a selloff by hog farms, said Lin Guofa, senior analyst with Bric Agriculture Group.

China’s March soybean imports from Brazil, meanwhile, plunged as rain delayed some shipments from the world’s top exporter, but US bean imports rocketed more than fourfold as delayed cargoes arrived, hitting the highest monthly total since December 2016.

The world’s biggest buyer of soybeans imported 315,334 tonnes from Brazil in March, down 85 per cent from 2.1 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Custom showed on Tuesday. The Brazilian imports were the lowest since January 2017, according to Reuters records of customs data.

A lot of it seemed to come down to some delays affecting the timing of when US shipments arrived

Darin Friedrichs

More than offsetting that slide, China imported 7.18 million tonnes of soybeans from the United States in March, up 320 per cent from 1.71 million tonnes in the previous year.

Tuesday’s data provided the first breakdown of imports by origin since China published data earlier this month showing overall imports of soybeans last month climbed 82 per cent to 7.77 million tonnes.

“A lot of it seemed to come down to some delays affecting the timing of when US shipments arrived,” said Darin Friedrichs, senior analyst at StoneX. “Some of the cargoes could have arrived earlier, but didn’t actually get offloaded until March.”

China had stepped up purchases of soybeans and other US farm produce after the two sides signed an initial trade deal in January last year. But buyers of the oilseed have turned to the US more than usual in 2021, as rains in Brazil slowed the harvest there and delayed exports.

Chinese crushers bring in soybeans to crush into soymeal to feed livestock and for cooking oil. They had previously ramped up buying of soybeans amid expectations of healthy demand from the country’s fast-recovering hog herd.

But a severe wave of African swine fever in recent months has wiped out at least 20 per cent of the breeding herd in northern China, some estimates show, reducing soymeal demand.

Increased use of wheat in animal feed has also curbed soymeal demand, analysts and traders say.

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