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The coronavirus again dominated all walks of life, while the deaths of Queen Elizabeth and Shinzo Abe will long live in the memory. Photo: AP

Economy

Global Impact: China ends 2022 with a bang with the end of zero-Covid, but what’s around the corner in 2023?

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
In this edition, we look back at the events that unfolded in 2022 and also looks ahead to what we can expect in 2023.

Year in Review

Chow Chung-yan

Published: 2:00pm, 3 Jan 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

The year 2022 ended with a bang, with China suddenly relaxing its Covid-19 restrictions after three years of what amounted to the strictest social control measures in recent history.

Having kept the deadly virus at bay for most of the pandemic, the nation is now buried under an avalanche of cases, with millions falling sick and dead bodies piling up fast at Chinese hospitals and morgues.

The changes are as abrupt as they are consequential, and this is a befitting end for a year full of dramatic and monumental events.

For many, this is truly a year hard to forget: we have witnessed a large-scale war breaking out in Ukraine; an escalating food and energy crisis spreading across the world; the global economy edging towards the brink of deep recessions and leadership changes in mainland China, Hong Kong and other parts of the world.

11:42

China 2022 Year in Review

In the United Kingdom, the post of prime minister changed hands three times before the year was out. Political turmoil continued to rock the island nation, which also lost its longest-serving and most iconic monarch in modern times.

In Japan, a former prime minister was gunned down in broad daylight, while in the US, a former president was simultaneously fighting against mounting legal problems that could send him to prison and plotting a political comeback that would put him in the White House again and make history.

Geopolitical tensions intensified in Asia, with the US and China locking horns over almost every arena.

The People’s Liberation Army crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait for the first time as Beijing staged the largest war game in years to protest the controversial visit by American politician Nancy Pelosi to the self-governed island of Taiwan. For weeks, the world watched in jitters if another war would break out in the Pacific as it earlier did in Ukraine.

02:27

Inside an overcrowded Beijing hospital struggling with Covid surge in China

Looming large on the horizon, the deadly coronavirus is still active and keeps mutating, showing no signs of approaching the end of its lethal evolution.

Like the Covid-19 relaxation in China, many of these bewildering stories are still unfolding. So buckle up! We are promised to have another roller-coaster year in 2023.

How quickly China can emerge from the post-Covid-19 control mayhem will greatly shape the global economy in 2023. At the same time, the leadership reshuffle that saw President Xi Jinping land his unprecedented third term is still unfinished. In March, China will unveil a new line-up of its central government for the next five years.

After three years of painful isolation, Hong Kong will finally reconnect itself with the mainland and the rest of the world. How well the city can seize the opportunity and rebuild its economy will be an ultimate test for its new leader John Lee, who has made his career known as a problem-solver.

07:47

How Hong Kong returned from Covid disaster to bring back Rugby Sevens and reopen to the world

The war in Ukraine is entering a stalemate. How this may end will impact global geopolitics for the years to come. With so many uncertainties around, nobody can confidently say that the global economy is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

News reporting has never been more challenging and exciting. At the South China Morning Post, our newsroom is entering the new year full of anticipation.

We are grateful to have you as our reader and look forward to being your trusted news source for the history-making stories ahead of us in a new year.

60 second catch-up

Covid-19 is ripping through China. Could a new variant of concern emerge?

Video: Inside an overcrowded Beijing hospital struggling with Covid surge in China

New task force brings together Hong Kong ministers to start planning full reopening of mainland border

Explainer: Welcome to Hong Kong? With the city’s latest drastic easing of Covid curbs, here’s what you need to know if you’re finally visiting

‘Absolute loyalty’: China’s Xi Jinping tells Politburo to toe party line ‘under all circumstances’

02:03

China’s 20th party congress concludes with bigger than expected leadership reshuffle

Hundreds of Hongkongers mourn and pay tribute to Queen Elizabeth, ‘the lady in charge’ under British rule

Video: China 2022 Year in Review

Rishi Sunak vows to put ‘stability’, ‘competence’ at heart of government as Britain’s new prime minister

Shinzo Abe’s funeral unpopular in Japan but may deepen regional ties: analysts

03:24

The triumphs and tribulations of Japan's former prime minister Shinzo Abe

Beijing condemns Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, calling it ‘a serious violation’ of one-China policy

Video: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan as Beijing announces live-fire military drills

Deep Dives

China’s sudden shift from Covid-zero raises more questions than answers

People who were grateful for the precautions are asking why the time wasn’t used to prepare for the current surge

Officially, daily infections are in the thousands and deaths are minimal but social media outpourings paint a different picture

“It all happened suddenly,” said Wang Guohong, his voice still hoarse from Covid-19. Within days, the 46-year-old Beijing resident had gone from relief at seeing China’s stringent pandemic controls dismantled to helplessness, with his entire family infected by Omicron.

Wang, who lost his job as an IT engineer when his multinational employer divested from China during zero-Covid, did not expect the lifting of the policy to throw his life into further disarray.

China’s reopening presents rest of world with dilemma: put out the welcome mat or tighten border controls?

Countries such as the US, Japan and Italy are testing new arrivals, while other countries are actively courting Chinese tourists

Many European countries as well as Australia and New Zealand have started campaigns on social media saying they welcome visitors from China

Foreign governments have given a mixed reaction to the expected outflow of Chinese travellers following Beijing’s decision to lift travel curbs early next month.

At least six governments have announced new restrictions on new arrivals from mainland China, but other countries have launched or stepped up campaigns aimed at attracting Chinese visitors with slogans such as “waiting for you” or “waiting until I see you”.

All eyes on China’s economic ‘balancing act’ with Beijing urged to lift mood

Businesses are watching keenly for concrete steps to get the economy back on track following the 20th party congress

Steadying investor sentiment will be no easy feat, however, as uncertainty remains over China’s new leadership line-up

As the dust settles on the Communist Party’s leadership reshuffle, China must urgently restore confidence among private and foreign investors in its coronavirus-battered economy, analysts and economists say.

The 20th party congress wrapped up on Sunday, handing President Xi Jinping a norm-breaking third term as the party secretary at the apex of power in the world’s second-largest economy. Xi tightened his dominance by lining the country’s top decision-making body with loyalists, while leaving the door open for a fourth five-year term in 2027.

Queen Elizabeth’s moments in Asia: dinner with Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, being ‘chased’ in Malaysia, meeting ‘royal friend’ Thai King Bhumibol

The late queen made several trips to Commonwealth states, including former colonies like Singapore, Malaysia and India, and was also the first royal to visit China

In Bangkok, she shared that Queen Victoria had been pen pals with Thailand’s King Rama IV, Mongkut; while her 1975 trip to Hong Kong was so successful that it later inspired the building of a sports stadium

Queen Elizabeth was the oldest British monarch in history and also the nation’s longest-reigning one, on the throne for 70 years and 214 days before her death on Thursday at 96.

The richest queen in the world, she was also the second-longest reigning monarch, after French King Louis XIV; he ruled for more than 72 years before he died in 1715.

Will Sunak’s rise in UK prompt soul-searching in Chinese-majority Singapore?

Singapore’s three prime ministers are all of Chinese descent, but observers note Sunak’s rise should not be ‘romanticised’ as he was chosen by a small circle of Tory MPs

Observers also question whether takeaway should be about a person from an ethnic minority group being PM or that a ‘ridiculously rich elite’ could take the top job

Rishi Sunak has succeeded the embattled Liz Truss to become the first person of colour to lead Britain, a move that has been described as historic and evolutionary for UK politics.

In India – the crown of Britain’s erstwhile empire – jubilation appeared to be widespread over a person of Indian origin becoming the leader of the country’s former colonial ruler.

Chance for stability in aftermath of China hawk Liz Truss, analyst says

The former British PM was ready to forge ahead with her China threat plan before her resignation

Her departure could ease strained ties but the long-term prospects may not be rosy, analysts warn

The political turmoil in Britain over Liz Truss’ surprise resignation as prime minister on Thursday will probably take some pressure off its strained ties with Beijing but the long-term outlook remains clouded, according to Chinese observers.

While internet commenters in China expressed glee over Truss’ reign as the shortest-serving British prime minister in history, the Chinese foreign ministry refused to comment directly on Friday on the sudden departure of Truss, who continued her predecessor Boris Johnson’s hawkish approach towards China and Russia.

Will Shinzo Abe’s widow take over his safe seat, or is Japan ready to move on?

Akie Abe fanned speculation she may take over her late husband’s constituency, viewed as the ‘safest of safe seats’, following comments at a funeral service

She faces opposition from the Abe family, and lack of political experience makes her no match for Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, who is touted as a future leader

The widow of former Japanese leader Shinzo Abe is considering taking over his constituency before a by-election next spring, a move likely to be welcomed by his faction within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, but may cause friction among the Abe family and other senior party members.

Akie Abe fanned speculation she may assume the Yamaguchi No 4 constituency and then stand in the April 2023 by-election, saying during a funeral service in Nara for her husband on October 15: “My husband really loved Yamaguchi, as well as the cities of Shimonoseki and Nagato. I also want to engage in some sort of activity for this area.”

Senior US diplomats visit China in wake of Bali talks but little hope of a full thaw

US State Department says the trip, yet to be confirmed by Beijing, aims to manage bilateral rivalry and ‘explore potential areas of cooperation’

Concrete outcomes on trade, military and other thorny issues unlikely as both sides focus on core interests, observers say

A group of senior US diplomats arrives in China today in an effort to halt a steep decline in ties and prepare the ground for a planned visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken early next year.

Observers described the trip, the first such exchange in months, as “a continuation of the Bali talks”, referring to President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden’s first in-person meeting on the margins of the G20 summit last month.

Trump vows to cut ‘dependence on China’ as he launches 2024 White House bid

Third run for Oval Office will face opposition from own Republican Party after lacklustre midterm election results for candidates he backed

Former president who steered US into direct economic confrontation with China undeterred by impeachment and ongoing January 6 probe

Former US president Donald Trump, whose administration steered Washington into direct economic confrontation with Beijing, announced late on Tuesday that he will run for a second term in the White House.

Undeterred by an impeachment and an investigation by the US House of Representatives for his role in the January 6 riots on Capitol Hill last year and poor results for a slew of candidates that he backed in last week’s midterm elections, Trump declared his intention during a prime-time event at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.