How China can best prepare for Trump’s return

To counteract Trump’s caustic policies, Beijing must expand its multichannel diplomacy with the US, engage with the rest of the West in a more nuanced way, and regain its economic mojo

Brian Y. S. Wong

Published: 5:30am, 14 Feb 2024

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The precipitous deterioration of Sino-US relations over the past decade has many structural causes – American elites’ angst over a rival economic power, widening US socioeconomic inequalities and hyper nationalism across both sides of the pond.

A key catalyst was Donald Trump. With his truculent, erratic and self-serving personality, the former US president initiated the Sino-US trade war, peddled Covid-19 theories to excoriate China, and was twice impeached, notably over the Capitol riots.

Storming to victory in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, Trump is miles ahead of any Republican rival. An NBC poll last month showed President Joe Biden trailing Trump and seen as particularly weak on economic and immigration issues.

It is high time Beijing began preparing for the unimaginable: Trump’s triumph. If elected, his China policy will most likely be steered by a team with a militant and confrontational “containment” outlook on China. Possible picks include senator Tom Cotton, who spearheaded the witch-hunt at the TikTok hearings, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and ex-trade representative Robert Lighthizer.

Beijing’s recent flurry of diplomatic re-engagement with Washington is most constructive and needed for consolidating the gains from Biden’s meeting with President Xi Jinping last November. It also signalled China’s willingness to repair relations with the West – especially American and European businesses and investors, whose support Beijing counts on for economic recovery.

Yet, this is not enough. First, Beijing must expand its multichannel diplomacy with the US. With a Trump victory, the White House and Pentagon would probably become lost causes for cooperation. Backchannels must be preserved with seasoned technocrats and more balanced economic advisers outside the cabinet.

Against the bellicosity of the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese diplomats must reach out to more business-minded and global-issues-oriented voices within Congress, to keep communication channels open and conducive to level-headed discussions.

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Furthermore, Beijing must make way for genuinely private-sector-led efforts spearheading Track 2 diplomacy between academics, investors, entrepreneurs, artists and young people. Undue government involvement would only compound the scepticism about so-called state capture and infiltration of civilian initiatives.

More regional or city-to-city, plus people-to-people exchanges should take place. Ties between cosmopolitan regions, such as the Greater Bay Area and California’s Bay Area, or Shanghai and New York need to be bolstered to enable frank and honest backchannel communication, with Trump likely to curb federal-level funding for Sino-US engagement programmes.

Second, China must recognise that the “West” is not a monolith. Europe, Oceania and Britain remain important trading partners. With Trump’s isolationist and pugnacious tendencies, and with aid to Ukraine hanging by a thread, Brussels is likely to recalibrate its US relationship.

European nations are stepping up their support for Nato efforts. Even Hungary’s Viktor Orban had to acquiesce to pressure from French, German, and Italian leaders, in ratifying a US$54 billion aid package for Ukraine.

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In a poll last April by the European Council on Foreign Relations, 43 per cent of respondents said China remained a necessary partner to Europe, against 24 per cent who saw it as a rival, and 11 per cent as an adversary. Besides electric vehicles (EVs) and protectionist inclinations, much of the European scepticism towards China stems from the perception that Beijing tacitly endorses Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

To dispel this, China should apply more pressure on Russia and emphasise its openness to working with the European Union for a judicious conclusion to the war. Beijing and Brussels should respectively work on bringing leaders Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table.

A more nuanced stance on the war would enable Beijing to lessen the worries of institutional investors from Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia concerning the purported geopolitical risks of doing business in China. In gaining goodwill from Ukraine peacemaking, China could tactfully press for more mutually agreeable proposals to restore market access for Chinese EV firms in Europe.

An attendee flies a flag supporting former US president Donald Trump ahead of a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire, US, on January 20. Photo: Bloomberg

With Trump threatening tariffs of 60 per cent or higher on Chinese exports, Chinese manufacturers would benefit from strategic joint ventures in these regions, in circumventing the prohibitive and self-destructive barriers imposed by the US. This goes hand in hand with efforts to build local partnerships in, for example, critical raw material extraction, renewable energy generation, and artificial intelligence research and development.

Third, the best way to counteract Trump’s caustic policies is for China to regain its economic mojo on its own terms. While by no means straightforward, given the many objectives – including security and common prosperity – economic growth must be prioritised this year, to bring down youth unemployment and rejuvenate market confidence.

Convening a Third Plenum would be particularly timely, with an emphasis on empowering private businesses, strengthening legal protections for property rights, and improving the transparency and accountability of state-owned enterprises.

A steady restoration of confidence among domestic entrepreneurs and foreign investors can be achieved through clarifying the scope, limits and procedures involved in the regulatory and national security campaigns, as well as showing that lawfully compliant consultancies can still operate on the mainland.

Trump may not win, of course. A second Biden term could be just as bellicose towards China – although this seems unlikely, given recent efforts to establish guard rails and a floor to the relationship.

One way or another, Sino-US relations will remain fundamentally turbulent. Yet, provided China prepares for the worst and hopes for the best, this storm, too, shall pass.

Brian Wong is an assistant professor in philosophy at the University of Hong Kong, and a Rhodes Scholar and adviser on strategy for the Oxford Global Society