Hong Kong’s population growth should prompt some soul-searching

While the growth in numbers is heartening, the city’s low fertility rate and ageing population call for creative approaches
With migration set to be the main mode of population growth, the city must focus on diversity and inclusiveness

Paul Yip

Published: 5:30am, 28 Feb 2024

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Hong Kong’s population grew by 0.4 per cent from 7,472,600 in 2022 to 7,503,100 at the end of 2023, according to the Census and Statistics Department’s latest report. It is the second consecutive year of growth after the decline in 2021.

The number of deaths continued to outnumber births, however, resulting in a natural decrease of 21,200 people. The growth last year was mainly because of migration – the city recorded a net inflow of 51,700 residents.

Of these, 40,800 were one-way permit holders – the spouses or children of Hong Kong residents – and another 10,800 comprised the net gain in migration after taking into account the inflow and outflow of Hong Kong residents.

Here are some observations from the department’s latest report that are of great importance for Hong Kong’s future population development.

First, the impact of migration on population development must be recognised as it is likely to play an even greater role in the future. The government suggests that many Hong Kong residents who went abroad during the Covid-19 pandemic returned to the city last year, noting that there was a considerable inflow of permanent residents in the second half of 2023.

The city’s various immigration schemes also contributed to population growth by attracting mainland Chinese and foreigners, with 70,000 people arriving through talent schemes. Despite, this, the net gain was 10,800 people, which suggests that about 60,000 people left the city.

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Between January 2021 and September 2023, 184,700 people left Hong Kong for Britain under a specially created migration channel. Of those, most were in the 30-49 age group, comprising professionally and economically active people. They would have taken their young children as well.

The important question to ask is whether those who left have been replaced by incoming talent. A survey conducted by the Labour and Welfare Bureau in November found that the median monthly income of people recruited under the Top Talent Pass Scheme is HK$50,000, more than double the local median monthly salary. Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said these new entrants are generating the equivalent of 1.2 per cent of Hong Kong’s gross domestic product.

However, those who left would have had a higher than average salary, too. Most of those entering Hong Kong through the scheme came from the mainland, and they tended to find jobs in the finance and information technology sectors.

Diversity and inclusion are important for the development of a metropolis. The composition of migrants must be monitored to maintain Hong Kong’s status as a global city that attracts talent from abroad. Recruiting talent from “belt and road” countries could be one way to ensure a diverse pool.

Second, the fact there were 700 more births in 2023 than in 2022 is an important sign. Although small, it is the first increase in six years. The total fertility rate in 2023 – the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime – is still 0.7, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Nevertheless, at least the decreasing trend has halted. In 2024, one can be cautiously optimistic that the increase in the number of births will continue, as there was also a 58 per cent increase in the number of marriages in 2023. As most children in Hong Kong are born to married couples, the increase in the number of marriages could provide further momentum for a fertility rate increase.

The Hong Kong government should seize the opportunity to do more to remove barriers for newlywed couples and adopt more pronatalist measures, including increasing the cash bonus offered to new parents and other family-friendly support, to encourage childbirth.

Third, population ageing will become more serious as life expectancy is set to increase. The number of adults aged 65 and over has risen by another 1.2 percentage points from 21.2 per cent to 22.4 per cent. Based on the present trajectory, it will continue to rise, and is expected to hit 30 per cent by 2030.

How to manage the well-being of older adults without imposing too great a financial burden on the government has become more critical than before. We need to be more creative in dealing with this challenge. Removing barriers to fertility for young couples and attending to the well-being of older adults should be priorities.

Migration has become an important issue for Hong Kong, and the changes will not be smooth unless more effort is made to iron out the difficulties in retaining talent and maintaining social harmony.

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The government needs to adopt a more proactive mindset in shaping Hong Kong’s future as a metropolis. We sometimes seem too obsessed with numbers and it is important to ensure we have the capacity to absorb an increasing number of migrants, without compromising on opportunities for the local population. We welcome migrants to replenish our dwindling population, but the needs of local people must also be addressed.

Hong Kong would serve the country best by maintaining its distinctiveness and uniqueness as a global metropolis. We need to be inclusive and diversify, and adopt a forward-looking approach. Hong Kong society has to find its own way to meet the challenges arising from a low fertility rate, an ageing population and increasing migration.

Paul Yip is the associate dean (knowledge exchange and development) in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong

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