Donald Trump on stage at a New Hampshire presidential primary election night watch party, in Nashua, New Hampshire, on January 23. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Andrew Sheng
Andrew Sheng
Under President Trump 2.0, US enemies will have less to fear than allies
Expect a right-wing agenda, a Ukraine deal with Russia, a restrained Israel, truce with China, and European and other allies treated again as vassals. Distant enemies will have less to fear than close allies
Travelling in the jungles of Sabah on Borneo island last week kept me sane from the daily bombardment of crisis news from around the world. Amid the cries of gibbons in the dark, with dawn broken by bird song, the cruelties of man against man and which alpha male comes out as the next top dog were faraway worries.
Coming out of the jungle meant one could not ignore the return of Donald Trump, who has won the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and forced contender Ron DeSantis to withdraw, with Nikki Haley his only rival in the race to be the Republican nominee at the November US presidential elections.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is struggling in the polls, facing an escalating war in the Middle East that he cannot win (at least not in the short term). Gallup polls suggest he entered election year with a 39 per cent job approval rating, the lowest in the past four decades for a president seeking re-election. His foreign policies have been a disaster, unifying the Global South against US support of Israel’s slaughter in Gaza.
Without further aid from the United States and Europe, Ukraine faces a crushing defeat in its war with Russia – or a humbling negotiated peace. If the Houthis and Hezbollah widen the war in the Middle East, Biden would have a war-loser image, on top of his geriatric stumbles.
Biden won the last time from a record turnout against Trump. He is hoping for a repeat. But Republicans are lowering the heat on abortion rights and many young Democratic supporters are angry about Biden’s unqualified support for Israel.
We should therefore be prepared for Trump’s return as president, barring any court rulings that could stop him from running.
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Trump wins New Hampshire primary, beating rival Nikki Haley who vows to stay in the race
Trump wins New Hampshire primary, beating rival Nikki Haley who vows to stay in the race
What can we expect from Trump 2.0? Given the deep polarisation of views between Democrats and Republicans, Trump will push the right-wing agenda in America with vigour. Trump’s return is indicative of the swing to the right in the West, as recent elections in Argentina, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and New Zealand have shown.
What liberals fear most is that Trump will dismantle the institutional and constitutional checks and balances, culling civil servants who defend these rights. The US Supreme Court is packed with Republican-nominated judges; if federal civil servants are removed for political reasons, the quality of justice, fairness and competence in the US administration will be compromised, with serious consequences.
Opponents of America will shed no tears if Trump does a slash-and-burn of US global leadership, as he had started to do in his term. Allies like Europe shuddered when Trump treated them like vassals. Democrats and the military industrial complex were deeply worried about Trump’s penchant for dealing with dictators. It will come as no surprise that Russia is waiting for Trump’s return for a Ukraine deal.
The most realist outcome is a negotiated armistice, like with the Korean war, with both sides retaining the status quo. Diehard Ukrainian nationalists will feel betrayed, but the dovish Europeans, Russians and the rest of the world would settle for a negotiated peace in which all sides can rebuild. The loser will be Ukraine, divided, with tens of thousands dead or seriously wounded and its infrastructure in tatters.
In the Middle East, Trump will try to charm his way into transactional deals. Given his close business and family ties to the Jewish community, he will stick with Israel but seek to reassure Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even Iran that he wants a delicate peace, not outright war. Those who do not want unending wars would be happy to settle for US restraint of Israeli excesses. The losers will be the Palestinians.
The more interesting situation is with China and the Taiwan Strait. If Trump manages to settle with Russia, he would pacify his neoconservative opponents because the US can then focus on China, the only bipartisan issue.
The most realistic situation, but messy, is that Trump also does a deal with Beijing, buying time to rebuild the American economy and armaments supply chain, after running down munitions to supply the Ukraine and Gaza wars.
Beijing would also want to have time to sort out its domestic economic issues and draw lessons from the new technologies in warfare – such as in drones and missiles – used in Ukraine and Gaza.
For the Global South, expect Trump to continue the US spending spree, using the Federal Reserve and dollar to fund American trade and fiscal deficits. It would be a surprise if Trump starts raising taxes and cutting debt. Trump is likely to use his political capital instead to push through tough immigration measures, continue to build the Mexico wall and lower interest rates to re-inflate real estate, the core source of his wealth.
And what of climate change? Trump is not known to be a believer, so expect little leadership on cutting back on shale oil or the generous financing of net-zero initiatives for the Global South.
In short, expect classic Trump volatility in terms of policies and a more personal, transactionary stance that preaches right-wing values but which benefit the 1 per cent more than the rest. The enemies of the US have less fear of Trump than its allies. These will be relegated to doing what they are told or lumping it. Distant enemies have less to fear than close allies. Good luck, Europe.
Andrew Sheng is a former central banker who writes on global issues from an Asian perspective
