Hong Kong’s low fertility rate shows urgency of creating a more family-friendly society

Assumptions about net migration gains offsetting natural population decline are far from certain and ignore several pressing issues
There is no silver bullet for raising the fertility rate, but a caring, happy living environment for all can help

Paul YipandBai Yiming

Published: 8:15am, 24 Aug 2023

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Hong Kong’s population growth is facing significant challenges, the biggest being the city’s low fertility rate and an ageing society. According to the government’s latest population projections, the total fertility rate stood at 0.772 births per woman in 2021, well below the replacement level of 2.1, and is expect to decline further and remain at a lower level in the future.

The latest survey from the Hong Kong Family Planning Association also showed that the average number of children per married woman has dropped to a historic low of 0.9. The proportion of childless women has reached 43.2 per cent, more than doubling since 2017, replacing women with one child (27.4 per cent) as the mainstream in Hong Kong.

Although the government has taken various measures to encourage childbirth, such as increasing the length of maternity and paternity leave, these measures appear to have had little impact. This is because young people in Hong Kong, as in other high-income Asian societies, must weight various factors when choosing marriage and childbirth.

These include high housing and living costs, an increase in the proportion of women participating in the workforce, and higher levels of education. These factors make it more difficult for young people to afford the costs of childbirth and child-rearing, leading to low fertility rates.

The government has adopted a more optimistic outlook, estimating that total fertility rates will bounce back, to above 0.9 by 2026, which is unlikely given that fertility rates in the city have been falling for decades. This suggests that an additional 10,000 babies at least would be born in Hong Kong each year. However, we are in a low-fertility trap and have little chance of slowing the decline.

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Also, the government assumes our population will be replenished by net gains in migration that offset the natural decrease. In an era of globalisation, immigration is an important factor in population growth. In Hong Kong, an international city, immigration plays a crucial role in population growth and is also an important force in promoting cultural assimilation and social development. Immigration can bring new talent and innovation, promoting economic development.

However, it is also essential that these immigrants adapt and integrate well, or they may not stay long. This could even have a negative impact on attempts to build a better society and economy.

The government’s estimates for net gains from foreign talent and one-way permit holder arrivals are still fluid and uncertain. Even if the projections for births and migrants are accurate, Hong Kong would still face an acute ageing situation, with one in three people aged 65 or older by 2046. These trends will have far-reaching impacts on the city’s economic and social development, necessitating a comprehensive response.

Many of the negative effects will appear decades later but they can be felt even now with the closure of schools and kindergartens. The city’s financial and economic development and sustainability face many difficulties. Piecemeal efforts will not be effective.

The course of Hong Kong’s population is not set in stone as it is based on assumptions that could be wrong. Nevertheless, it gives us a glimpse of our future. If we want to avoid this scenario, we must take action to ensure the current projections do not become reality.

We need a comprehensive response. To achieve sustainable and healthier population development, more incentives are needed for young people to have children. These could include expanding maternity leave, building more nurseries and kindergartens, and offering child allowances and tax reductions. Such measures can help alleviate financial and social barriers that young families face when considering having children.

Additionally, we must increase support for couples with children, such as by providing family allowances, reducing education expenses and offering more family medical services. These measures can help families raise their children, and will promote population growth and development.

Finally, we must promote policies that attract more high-quality professionals, boosting economic development and population growth.

More Hongkongers say no thanks to marriage, babies

However, we must also ensure these migrants have a safe and comfortable environment in which to live and work. Efforts should also be made to slow the outflow of residents and make Hong Kong a place known for retaining talent.

Ageing will become more acute and institutional care won’t be enough. We need to promote community support and make it possible for more people to remain at home as they get older.

For those without someone to care for them, we need to build more nursing homes, offer better medical services and implement elderly care policies to ensure they can live a healthy and comfortable life. Achieving healthy population development requires the support of society and policy changes.

The city’s fertility rate is expected to keep falling amid the increasing prevalence to delay marriage and women remaining single, as well as the stable trend of low birth rates.

Good family planning education and awareness is critical. We need to remove barriers to fertility for those who want to have children and create a more family-friendly social environment. There is no silver bullet for raising the fertility rate – but a caring, warm and happy living environment will certainly help.

Paul Yip is associate dean (knowledge exchange and development) in the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Hong Kong

Bai Yiming is a PhD student in the Department of Social Work and Social Administration, University of Hong Kong