Ukrainian emergency workers wearing radiation protection suits attend training in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on June 7. The nine nuclear-armed states continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Photo: AP
Opinion
Fakhar Alam
Fakhar Alam
A fallout of the Ukraine war is the erosion of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime
The war has renewed discussion about the value of nuclear weapons to state security
Meanwhile, the failure to renew or replace the New START treaty could lead to a dangerous global arms race
The nuclear non-proliferation regime permits access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, forbids non-nuclear-weapon states from making weapons using this technology and urges states with nuclear weapons to pursue disarmament in good faith.
The safety and security of nuclear technology is also part of the regime’s mandate. However, it has been influenced by major global geopolitical developments throughout its existence – the Ukraine war being a case in point.
This conflict has recalibrated the importance of nuclear weapons in the global political system, giving rise to the debate about whether Russia would have taken the steps it did had Ukraine been in possession of nuclear weapons. The lesson here is that nuclear weapons are essential for establishing a deterrent and ensuring the survival of a state, particularly in the face of a nuclear-armed or conventionally strong rival.
Last year, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said Japan should consider hosting US nuclear weapons, a suggestion turned down by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Poland revealed it had approached the US about sharing nuclear weapons, although a White House official said they were unaware of the issue being raised. Iran said it had the capacity to develop nuclear weapons, but does not intend to do so.
In January this year, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said the country would consider building nuclear weapons or asking the US to deploy them on its territory if the North Korean nuclear threat grew. However, in April, the country agreed with the US that Washington would periodically send US nuclear-armed submarines to South Korea and involve Seoul in its nuclear planning.
More countries acquiring nuclear weapons would undermine the effectiveness of the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
01:34
Seoul Mayor says South Korea should build nuclear weapons in the face of threats from the North
Seoul Mayor says South Korea should build nuclear weapons in the face of threats from the North
For years, the New START treaty between Russia and the US accounted for 90 per cent of the world’s nuclear warheads as the only operational arms control agreement, but it is now in limbo because of emerging great power politics.
In response to US sanctions on Russia that hampered inspections of US nuclear facilities, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced earlier this year the suspension of his country’s participation in the New START treaty. The actions of both sides are creating implications for arms control arrangements, and the failure to renew or replace this treaty could lead to a dangerous global arms race.
The 2022 nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference could not reach a consensus, mainly because of Russia’s opposition to the inclusion of certain paragraphs in the draft document.
Other matters of significance have been put on the back burner, such as the proliferation potential of nuclear-powered submarines provided to non-nuclear weapon states, Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme and more. Although discussions and consensus on these matters were hardly prevalent earlier, the conflict in eastern Europe has made such initiatives even more difficult.
If disagreements continue to prevail at these forums and the major actors fail to regulate such matters by establishing a consensus, it will make the non-proliferation regime unproductive.
02:44
Raising the stakes: How North Korea became a nuclear state
Raising the stakes: How North Korea became a nuclear state
The chances of nuclear catastrophe are also high. Russia has issued warnings about the possibility of using nuclear weapons to deter intervention by Nato member countries. US tactical nuclear weapons are stationed in some Nato countries that are actively supporting Ukraine in the current conflict. Russia’s decision to deploy its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus could be seen as a response to what the US has been doing in Europe for decades, but these escalating tensions have adverse implications for all of humanity.
While this is far from the first time that the threat of using nuclear weapons has emerged during a crisis or a state has deployed them in another state, the trust deficit among actors is at a different level compared to previous crises. It is continuously increasing, particularly after the virtual freezing of the New START treaty, one of the major confidence-building measures between nuclear players with a stake in the conflict.
The safety and security of the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia nuclear plants in the conflict zone is another important issue. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of deliberately endangering nuclear power plants. There has been regular fighting near the Zaporizhzhia plant, and in May, Russian authorities evacuated 18 settlements in the region.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has been allowed access to the Zaporizhzhya plant, which is under Russian control, and raised serious concerns. Moscow has said that the radiation levels around the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia plants are normal, but the proximity of active conflict zones to nuclear power plants could pose grave risks.
The war in Ukraine is creating challenges for the nuclear non-proliferation regime by undermining existing non-proliferation arrangements, hindering consensus-building at non-proliferation forums and providing a stimulus for more countries to pursue nuclear weapon development. Hence, all parties to the conflict must adhere to agreed arms control arrangements.
Urgent steps must be taken to prevent the further erosion of the global nuclear order besides restoring respect for international law and mutually agreed norms. Russia, Ukraine and the IAEA must design joint mechanisms to ensure the safety and security of nuclear power plants.
Matters of global concern can be regulated by developing consensus and filling gaps in the nuclear order emerging in the wake of the Ukraine crisis to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime and global security architecture.
Fakhar Alam is a research officer at the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad
