How Beijing is seeking to counter US belligerence over Taiwan and avoid a war
- In response to provocative actions by Taiwanese pro-independence and foreign forces, three strategies have emerged
- Beijing is demonstrating its own conventional and cyber warfare capabilities, moving to engage in dialogue with regional US allies, and utilising economic statecraft
Even as past US administrations sold arms to Taiwan, they prioritised a peaceful resolution to tension across the Taiwan Strait. But, in recent years, deliveries of offensive arms, regular warship transits through the Taiwan Strait and the treatment of Taiwan as a “critical node” in the Indo-Pacific have suggested that Washington may now be opposed even to peaceful cross-strait unification.
In the 1982 communique, the United States pledged to gradually decrease arms sales to Taiwan until a “final resolution”. Moreover, the Taiwan Relations Act obliges the US to provide Taiwan with the necessary arms for defence only. However, the Trump and Biden administrations have deviated from this commitment by supplying weapons in excess of the defence requirement.
In this context, Washington circles often highlight mainland China’s growing military capabilities as a reason to prepare Taiwan for various contingencies, including asymmetric warfare. The US is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to “resist” any force or coercion that jeopardises Taiwan’s security, or social and economic system. It has been rallying its Indo-Pacific allies against Beijing’s possible military coercion of Taiwan.
Ironically, from Beijing’s perspective, Washington’s assertive diplomacy and military posture may be the very factors that, under China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law, contribute to Taiwan’s separation, impede peaceful unification efforts and force Beijing to consider employing “non-peaceful means”.
Given these circumstances, she said, Beijing’s best way forward is to eliminate Taiwan’s options by curtailing foreign interference in the Taiwan Strait and external support for the island.
To counter Taiwanese pro-independence and foreign forces, three Chinese strategies have emerged: demonstrating conventional and cyber warfare capabilities to deter the US; moving to engage in dialogue with regional US allies; and, utilising economic statecraft.
Furthermore, cyberattacks allegedly originating from China were found this year to have targeted telecommunication systems in Guam and the US, raising concerns about future destructive attacks. In a crisis, Beijing’s top priority would be disrupting communication systems and the US Transportation Command that moves American military assets around.
A review of the 2018 US National Defence Strategy warned that the US could face a “decisive military defeat” by China, given its advanced capabilities and the logistical challenges confronting the US in the Indo-Pacific.
While these countries adhere to the one-China policy, they are against a forceful change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing’s white paper on Taiwan seems to be for the benefit of these countries. It expresses Beijing’s sincere wish for peaceful reunification, with the use of force only as a last resort.
Despite aligning their broader strategies with the US, American allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines stress the importance of China in regional peace and stability. They also advocate for dialogue to ease tensions between the US and China, and to stabilise their own relations with Beijing.
Behind the scenes, China and the US are engaged in dialogue
The foreign policy positioning of these US allies suggests a low likelihood of direct military confrontation with mainland China over Taiwan.
Riaz Khokhar is a research analyst on geopolitics and security of the Indo-Pacific region and a former Asia studies visiting fellow at East-West Center in Washington