Hope for US-China relations as behind-the-scenes diplomacy makes a comeback
Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger was known for working behind the scenes in the interest of peace
High-level talks in Vienna, backchannel meetings in China and nuanced, restrained actions around Taiwan suggest greater understanding between Washington and Beijing is not impossible
Henry Kissinger turns 100 on May 27. In the eyes of some, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state epitomises behind-the-scenes diplomacy with his ice-breaking trips to China, shuttle diplomacy missions in the Middle East and detente manoeuvres with the former Soviet Union in the 1970s.
The way I see it, what he has pursued all his life is more important than ever. We are in a time when, in the words of US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, “all of us should recommit ourselves to preventing such a [World War II-like] horrific catastrophe, and try to resolve differences in means other than the use of the levels of violence that come with great-power war”.
To prevent such a war from erupting again, we need hard-headed diplomacy, not public shouting matches. We need difficult issues to be subject to more to honest, behind-the-scenes discussions with less “megaphone diplomacy”, to quote Brian Davidson, Britain’s consul-general to Hong Kong and Macau, who spoke to the Post earlier this month about Britain’s relations with China and his hope of seeing a new chapter in ties with Hong Kong.
The need for behind-the-scenes exchanges was illustrated when Cui Tiankai – China’s longest-serving ambassador to the United States until his retirement in 2021 – spoke at an online seminar held to celebrate Kissinger’s 99th birthday a year ago. Foreign Minister Wang Yi also gave a speech at the event where attendees included Robert Zoellick, who in 2005 urged China to become a “responsible stakeholder” during his time as US deputy secretary of state.
Cui said he was “worried about the quality of communications between us”. “Sometimes, it’s too much for political show … rather than for substantive policy exchanges,” he said, adding that the US and China needed to “sit down and have real discussions” including face-to-face talks, not just online.
Ever since his PhD dissertation “A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace 1812–22”, devoted to exploring how 100 years of peace was secured for 19th-century Europe after the Napoleonic Wars, Kissinger has lived for about 70 years with an obsession over the balance of power in contemporary international relations, given the forbidding deterrent of nuclear weaponry.
When “faced with the threat of thermonuclear extinction”, he wrote, “the attainment of peace should become the overriding concern”. But that endeavour is complicated by the fact that, as Kissinger put it, Nemesis punishes man by “answering his prayers too completely”, meaning the ultimate power with which humanity is supposed to secure its own safety can wipe it out apocalyptically when peace fails.
Things do not appear to have changed that much. In the place of the Soviets, the US is focusing on China as the adversary it sees as having the intent and capability to challenge its global leadership. The nuclear weapons stockpiled between the two, as well as those ready to launch from Russia’s silos, could destroy the planet more readily than when the Cold War was at its peak 40 years ago, so the apparent arrival of cold war II is something to be dreaded.
With that said, perhaps we can afford ourselves a bit of guarded optimism at the sight of US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Wang, now China’s top diplomat, meeting in Vienna for talks earlier this month.
Delegations from the United States and China meet for talks in Vienna, Austria, on May 10. Photo: Xinhua
The two sides spent more than eight hours in discussions across the two days, with key issues such as Taiwan and Ukraine high among their priorities. Both sides described the discussions as “candid”, “substantive” and “constructive”, and both emphasised their willingness to maintain this important strategic channel of communication.
A look back at recent events might suggest there was some tacit understanding already in place well before the meeting in Vienna.
Following heated official exchanges in the aftermath of an alleged Chinese spy balloon being spotted in US airspace in February and Mike Gallagher, the chair of the US House of Representatives’ select committee on China, calling US-China competition an “existential struggle”, State Department official Rick Waters quietly travelled to Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing for low-key meetings with Chinese academics and officials, something unheard of since the acrimony under the Trump administration.
Perhaps more indicative were recent nuanced interactions over Taiwan. With former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island last August still fresh in many people’s minds, there were fears of a backlash from Beijing when Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, met House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and an entourage of members of Congress in the US last month.
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US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, despite Beijing’s warnings
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, despite Beijing’s warnings
China’s reaction turned out to be more measured than expected, though. Honduras changing its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing before Tsai’s trip might have been an important development. There have been no reports of the US trying to stop Honduras from making the move. Perhaps Washington refrained from doing so in return for China’s restraint over the Tsai-McCarthy meeting, which took place in Los Angeles rather than Taipei.
Fast forward to last week. President Xi Jinping was hosting a summit with Central Asian countries in Xian while US President Joe Biden was in Hiroshima, Japan, for the annual Group of 7 summit, where the leaders recognised “the importance of engaging candidly with and expressing our concerns directly to China”.
This was yet another round of the contest between the US and China, of course. However, there are good reasons for us to have guarded optimism as long as, as Kissinger said in his latest interview with The Economist, “China and America, without formally announcing anything, would aim to practise restraint”.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics
