China will be the elephant in the room when leaders of the industrialised democracies known as the Group of Seven meet in Hiroshima from May 19-21 for a summit. From the war in Ukraine and arms build-up in North Korea to climate change mitigation and trade tensions, all roads lead to China.
Much of the communique, and news generated by discussions on the summit’s sidelines, will sound familiar, telegraphed by preparatory meetings. But there are also likely to be new moves.
These include shifts in thinking about Beijing’s role in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Outlines will be seen of policies to address emerging concerns over digital technologies.
There will be uneasiness, too, over the global economic fallout if there’s no agreement to raise the US debt ceiling before the G7 summit starts. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says a default could happen “as early June 1”.
Whatever the summit outcomes, they will underscore how the G7’s interests have widened since 1975 when six countries attended the first summit at Chateau de Rambouillet at the initiative of France and Germany.
Then, the global economy was reeling from an embargo by Arab countries in retaliation against US military support for Israel. The Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system had collapsed.
Canada became a member in 1976. By the 1980s, the G7 covered foreign and security policies. Russia joined in 1998 but its membership was indefinitely suspended in March 2014 after President Vladimir Putin annexed the Crimea region of Ukraine.
People sit under a screen showing Russian President Vladimir Putin as they attend an event on the ninth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in Sevastopol, Crimea, on March 18. Since 2015, Russia has marked the “Day of Reunification of Crimea with Russia” as a holiday. Photo: EPA-EFE
Meanwhile, the discussion of global economic issues was shifting to another bloc, the G20, which includes China. G20 members account for about 85 per cent of the global economy, with the G7 alone representing about 45 per cent.
The first order of business at Hiroshima will be the use of symbolism and carefully framed statements to underscore G7 unity on Beijing, to end any confusion after statements by France’s president last month. After his visit to China, Emmanuel Macron warned Europe it must not be the US’ “follower” or “vassal”. Europe’s leaders, he said, must not “take our cue from the US agenda” of accelerating tensions over Taiwan.
Affirmation of a Nato liaison office in Japan, the first of its kind in Asia, would be further evidence of the West and its Asian allies deepening ties. “Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow,” said Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is also eager to be a bridge between the G7 and the Global South.
The recent declaration concluding the preparatory meeting of G7 foreign affairs ministers will serve as a road map for the group’s positions on Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea and its military operations in the air and seas near Taiwan. More details may emerge about a trilateral intelligence-sharing network involving the United States, Japan and South Korea.
Once again, G7 leaders will straddle many priorities that emphasise the status quo of their one-China policy while reassuring Beijing they do not advocate Taiwan’s independence. Italy, the incoming G7 president, may end its Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China by year-end. The emergence of Italy, both a Nato and G7 member, as a “middle-power bridge” to Russia and China was unsettling to allies.
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Kishida discusses Japan’s maritime disputes with China during overseas trip to meet G7 leaders
Kishida discusses Japan’s maritime disputes with China during overseas trip to meet G7 leaders
Against this backdrop, China launched a four-ship flotilla on April 30, led by one of its most powerful warships, to circumnavigate Japan’s main islands.
We could see a clearer shift in the G7’s approach towards China’s role in negotiations with Putin to end the Ukraine war. Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by telephone for the first time since Russia’s invasion. Zelensky described the call as “long and meaningful”, with Beijing offering to dispatch an envoy to Kyiv to mediate a “political settlement”. Some believe the West has become less sceptical of Beijing’s role than in March when Putin and Xi met at the Kremlin.
Other key points on the foreign affairs agenda will include condemning North Korea’s unlawful launches of ballistic missiles, prioritising efforts in the Indo-Pacific as a counterweight to China, reiterating the prohibition against Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, and displaying unity on other festering conflicts. In the mix, too: praise for the evolving bonds between Japan and South Korea, countries at odds over Japan’s World War II aggressions.
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North Korea's Kim says Russia 'will prevail' over hostile forces in Victory Day message to Putin
North Korea's Kim says Russia 'will prevail' over hostile forces in Victory Day message to Putin
There are signs of the summit’s tilt towards a regulatory framework for digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, the global ecosystem for connectivity, and cryptocurrencies. Technology ministers have endorsed the “risk-based” regulation of AI – to protect privacy and minimise security risks – that would “preserve an open and enabling environment” anchored in democratic values.
We could gain insights into the depth of the group’s unity since G7 members’ approaches vary widely. For example, the European Union seeks guardrails through an AI Act while Japan prefers“agile or flexible governance, rather than pre-emptive, catch-all regulation”.
Kishida is stressing issues that affect “the next generation and beyond”. Climate-change mitigation through a sharp reduction in carbon emissions is a priority. The G7 nations account for a quarter of global carbon emissions. Ministerial talks have yielded a pledge to increase offshore wind capacity by 2030. But the ministers did not endorse a 2030 deadline for phasing out coal.
Will the G7 agenda be fulfilled? Global economics, domestic politics and international dynamics determine what gets done. Without a permanent administrative body, the “fly in, fly out” approach prevents sustained implementation. Collaboration on Covid-19 showed how the G7 can respond effectively. However, numerous ideas to overhaul the G7 to tackle its weaknesses are unlikely to take root.
James David Spellman, a graduate of Oxford University, is principal of Strategic Communications LLC, a consulting firm based in Washington, DC
