Joe Biden’s ‘decisive decade’ may include a US-China conflict that no one wants
- Washington’s policy shift on China, instigated by Trump, has only grown more pronounced under Biden, who has taken pains to shore up US alliances
- With the US also threatening Beijing’s red line on Taiwan, retaliation is all but inevitable
I used to think otherwise; I figured it would take quite some time for the Sino-American rivalry to produce any tangible results.
After all, there were some 70 years between when the US caught up with the UK in terms of GDP based on purchasing power parity, in the 1870s, and the 1940s, when it effectively took over leadership of the world. When the former Soviet Union locked horns with the US after World War II, it challenged and sometimes seemed poised to topple Washington’s supremacy before collapsing itself four decades later.
So it would be reasonable to assume that China – having overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in dollar terms and the US in purchasing power parity terms in the early 2010s – would have to continue to labour until at least the middle of this century to arrive at “the centre of the world stage”, or, as America hopes, to become exhausted in its own twilight years.
But things seem to have been moving at an accelerated pace since Biden dislodged Trump from the White House in January 2021.
Qin Gang, China’s new foreign minister, said that “the world has no safety without China being safe”, which sounds ominously similar to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetorical question in 2018: “Why do we need a world without Russia in it?”
A simple yet terrifying logical inference from all this is that, when tension has reached such a pitch, the next level is war. History has shown how the situation in Europe – the Anglo-German relationship in particular – in 1911-1912 went from hopeful to hopeless, resulting in World War I in 1914, the first massive war remembered as a series of massacres aided by modern technology on the battlefields.
Great powers sleepwalked to war in 1914. They are doing it again now
That China’s moves are reactive is obvious and the Americans know it. For example, Doug Wade, head of intelligence at the US Department of Defence, said during a webinar last week that “China doesn’t want to start a fight with us over Taiwan”, but added that “they will if they have to”.
Thus viewed, this year could well be the nodal point of a Bidenian decade, at the end of which one might be less likely to see his ideologically charged rivalry come through than witness human destiny sealed with immeasurably more horror than that which befell Europe between 1914 and 1918.
In the Hollywood film franchise The Terminator, protagonist Sarah Connor carves “no fate” onto a wooden table, before going off to try to change a preordained future in which an artificial intelligence system and its cyborg army spark a nuclear holocaust. We may well be at that moment now.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics