As the Philippines and Japan look to upgrade defence ties, not everyone is enthusiastic about it

The two countries have enjoyed a steady friendship in the post-war period, bolstered by strong trade, investment and more recently, cooperation in defence
Yet before they can forge any new military deals, their leaders must contend with pro-Beijing figures in Manila and Tokyo’s pacifist constitution

Richard Heydarian

Published: 3:30am, 1 Mar 2023

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“Ours is a special friendship whose value is beyond any measure,” declared former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte during a meeting with then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2017. Just months earlier, Duterte had thanked Tokyo for “really be[ing] our biggest helper”, underscoring Japan’s status as the largest source of aid and investment in recent years.

Despite rocky relations with the West, and his active efforts to court China and Russia, Duterte always held Japan in special regard throughout his controversial term in office. In fact, Abe was the first foreign leader to visit Manila in early 2017 during Duterte’s term.

Far from an isolated case, Japan has been held in high regard by all contemporary Filipino leaders. Former president Benigno Aquino visited Japan as many as six times during his term in office to expand strategic cooperation.

Meanwhile, current President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has characterised his recent visit to Japan as nothing less than “essential” given the depth of bilateral ties.

Buoyed by steadily deepening strategic cooperation over the past decade, the Philippines and Japan are on the cusp of elevating ties to a new level. In particular, Japan is seeking new defence deals to deploy a large number of troops to and conduct complex bilateral military drills with its Southeast Asian partner.

Such plans, however, are likely to be met with stiff resistance in the Philippines, especially among Beijing-friendly elites, progressive civil society groups, and nationalist legislators. Not to mention, Japan is yet to amend its pacifist constitution, which expressly proscribes any offensive projection of military power.

Late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe (left) and former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte raise a toast during a state dinner in Manila on January 12, 2017. Photo: AFP

Historically, the Philippines has had a roller-coaster relationship with Japan. At the dawn of the 20th century, Tokyo served as host to many exiled Filipino nationalists, who fought against both the Spanish Empire and American occupiers.

During World War II, however, Imperial Japan brutalised the Philippines, leaving the country in ruins by the mid-1940s. Throughout the post-war period, Tokyo successfully restored bilateral relations and even backed Manila as host of the Asian Development Bank in the mid-1960s.

Over the succeeding decades, Japan cemented its position as the Philippines’ leading trade and investment partner. In the mid-2000s, the two countries signed the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA), which is the sole bilateral free trade agreement between the Philippines and any major economy.

No wonder then, Japan has enjoyed generally high trust ratings among Filipinos. Bilateral relations then took a decidedly new direction following President Benigno Aquino’s endorsement of closer military ties with Tokyo amid festering maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

This paved the way for an unprecedented expansion in bilateral defence ties, including Japan’s first post-war deployment of armoured vehicles in 2018, and fighter jets for military drills in the Philippines in 2022. Last year, the two countries also held their first-ever “2 plus 2” dialogue among their defence and foreign ministers last year to discuss major defence deals.

Japanese Ground Home Defence Forces steer amphibious assault vehicles onto the beach during a landing exercise at a Philippine navy training centre in Zambales province on October 6, 2018. Photo: AFP

Under Marcos Jnr, who has rapidly expanded defence ties with traditional allies, Japan is seeking a reciprocal access agreement, which would enhance military operability, as well as a potential visiting forces agreement (VFA), which would facilitate large-scale bilateral military exercises as well as the transfer of advanced military hardware.

The Philippine ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, who happens to be a direct cousin of the president, has argued that current conditions are “one of the best times” for expanded strategic cooperation, with Japan now “almost at par” with the United States. Nevertheless, any major upgrade in bilateral defence relations is bound to face resistance on three levels.

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To begin with, Marcos’ recent decision to expand defence ties with the US has already riled up Beijing-friendly as well as progressive forces in the Philippines due to concerns over heightened tensions with China as well as overreliance on foreign powers.

In the past, many Filipino senators dragged their feet on signing major defence deals with other US allies, most notably Australia, for similar reasons. Thus, any potential VFA-style deal with Japan, which doesn’t have a treaty alliance with the Philippines, is bound to be opposed with even greater vigour.

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Moreover, Japan, unlike the US and Australia, has a major historical baggage. Until today, Tokyo has yet to fully apologise to and commensurably compensate Filipino victims of sexual violence, so-called comfort women, during World War II. Thus, civil society groups and progressive legislators will almost certainly mobilise against any major Philippines-Japan military deal.

Beijing-friendly elements in the Philippines, including supporters of former president Duterte as well as a number of major local government leaders, would also follow suit. After all, any expanding Philippines-Japan military cooperation will be part of a broader tripartite US-Philippine-Japan alliance against China.

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Thus, there is a clear risk that Beijing may retaliate by, inter alia, expanding its presence across Philippine-claimed waters as well as rolling back major investment pledges to the Southeast Asian country.

Finally, Japan also faces challenges at home, most notably Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, which restricts the country’s ability to project military power overseas. Despite a shift in public opinion in favour of amending the constitution, it’s unclear if the current Japanese leadership can overcome divisions within its ranks over the crucial matter, especially from the pacifist Komeito Party.

In short, while Filipino leaders undoubtedly view ties with Japan as “essential”, that doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing for plans to expand bilateral military cooperation.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific”, and the forthcoming “Duterte’s Rise”