Legalising births outside marriage won’t boost China’s dwindling population

A rule change in one Chinese province to allow unmarried women to have children gives them greater choice in principle, but not in practice
It does nothing to address the more fundamental economic and social factors preventing people from having children

Paul YipandBai Yiming

Published: 8:15am, 14 Feb 2023

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Last year marked the first time in 60 years that China’s population declined, falling to 1,411.8 billion from 1,412.6 billion in 2021.

The nation’s birth rate also hit an all-time low: in 2022, 9.56 million babies were born, a decrease of 9.98 per cent from 10.62 million in 2021. This equated to a birth rate of just 6.77 births per 1,000 people, compared to 7.52 in 2021.

With the deepening demographic crisis expected to have far-reaching effects on economic growth, authorities are scrambling for solutions.

While previously, only married women could legally have children in China, officials in Sichuan province have modified this regulation. On February 15, Sichuan province will begin allowing both married and unmarried individuals to register the birth of their children. The Sichuan Provincial Health Commission stated that the action was intended to “maintain long-term and balanced population development”.

Yet the hesitation among women to have children is arguably not due to legal limitations. Instead, it is part of a far broader trend: in modern China and other high-income Asian societies, young people are becoming less likely to get married and start a family. Last year, there were 11.6 million first marriages in China, which is almost 700,000 less than the year before and a long way below 2013’s peak of 23.9 million.

Legalising the birth of children outside marriage is not likely to make women want to have more children. While the registration of children already born to unmarried parents may initially boost official numbers, the effect will be short-lived and won’t have a significant impact on the number of births.

Encouraging the growth of single-parent families may have its consequences too. According to a 2018 study, children who experience parental separation display lower levels of cognitive ability, including more poorly developed reading, verbal and mathematical skills, and academic outcomes.

Research published in 1990 also indicates that those who experience the absence of a family member in childhood and adolescence are less likely to have stable and intimate relationships as adults. This may lead to a vicious cycle of those being born into single-parent families being more reluctant to get married or have children themselves, putting further downward pressure on future marriage and birth rates.

Although extramarital births account for around 50 per cent of births in some Western countries – many of which have supportive childcare policies – they make up only a small portion of the total in mainland China and around 8 per cent in Hong Kong. In China, where family values are highly regarded, most people believe that couples should marry before having children.

The decision to have a child is a major one, and it is dependent on various factors, including lifestyle preference, and economic and social circumstances. The low fertility rate in China can to a large extent be explained by the failure to create a supportive and child-friendly environment in which women can translate their fertility intentions into fertility practices.

Indeed, many Chinese women of reproductive age want to have children, but the increasing cost of raising a child, the dilemma of choosing between family and a professional career, and the changing attitudes towards marriage among younger generations have all helped to reduce fertility rates. A survey last year found that one of the main reasons around 80 per cent of people in China don’t want more than two children is financial pressure.

A mother and her baby play on a slide at in Beijing on May 11, 2021. Photo: AFP

Moreover, the economic downturn caused by three years of the Covid-19 pandemic means that people have lower future income expectations. Many families in China must rely on elderly relatives for child-rearing support so that parents can work. Under such pressure, having more children seems impossible.

Similarly, in a 2017 survey of adults in Hong Kong, some 68 per cent claimed they did not want more children, and the top reasons given were housing issues, heavy workload schedules and financial cost. The Covid-19 pandemic has also influenced the desire to procreate among Hong Kong residents.

The old adage “have children while you are young” has also fallen out of favour among people in Hong Kong. A local survey last year found that those between the ages of 20-29 are the least likely to want children. However, couples are more likely to experience difficulties conceiving at a more advanced age.

Hong Kong’s falling birth rate should surprise no one

Taken as a whole, the shift in regulations to allow child rearing out of marriage will do little to address the underlying circumstances behind declining fertility. We suggest a return to natural and healthy population expansion strategies through inherently effective fertility-boosting steps.

Some provinces are offering subsidies for families who have more children, which is a positive step, but not enough when considering how much it costs to feed, clothe, and educate children.

Policymakers must promote a more family-friendly working and living environment by providing continuous support for marriage, childbirth, education, housing and elderly care, as well as optimising the delivery of public services and allocation of market resources.

These measures will protect the development of families in general, create a marriage and family-friendly environment, and increase the fertility rate of families and society in general. The only way to increase fertility is by ensuring that people are happy and hopeful about the future.

Paul Yip is the chair professor (population health) at the University of Hong Kong

Yiming Bai is a PhD candidate in the Social Work and Social Administration Department at HKU