How Antony Blinken’s visit can bring some stability to volatile US-China relations

While modest expectations are healthy, the US secretary of state has the opportunity to offer a vision for the US-China relationship, gain meaningful cooperation on US priorities and open channels of dialogue critical to keeping intensifying competition from spiralling into conflict

Bates GillandEvan S. Medeiros

Published: 1:00am, 4 Feb 2023

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This article was written and scheduled to publish before Antony Blinken suspended his planned visit to China over the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon floating above Montana. However, at the time of publication, a State Department official told reporters that “the secretary indicated that he would plan to travel to the PRC at the earliest opportunity when conditions allow”.

The visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – the first by a top US diplomat in five years – comes at a critical point as US-China relations stand at the precipice of long-term enmity. Blinken’s trip could prevent this by putting the relationship on a more stable and sustainable path. Importantly, he walks into these meetings at a moment of unique leverage to do so.

While modest expectations are always healthy, Blinken nonetheless has the opportunity to offer a vision for the relationship, gain meaningful cooperation on US priorities and open channels of dialogue critical to managing intensifying competition. Without this progress, the relationship will veer into unbridled competition that increases the risk of accidents and even intentional conflict.

Now is the time to do so. China is more open to working with the United States than at any point in the last several years.

Beijing faces serious challenges abroad and at home in ways that make it receptive to putting US-China relations on a more stable footing. Blinken’s challenge is to maximise this window of opportunity.

Externally, China’s relationship with the US, Europe and developed Asia has become highly stressed. China faces criticism and creeping isolation from all sides.

Given its de facto support for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s sustained cooperation with Russia globally – including a possible trip by President Xi Jinping to Moscow later this year – China’s relations with the US and the “global West” have reached their lowest point in decades. China’s military and economic coercion of Taiwan in recent months have only accentuated this deterioration.

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The calendar of multilateral meetings this year presents China with the challenge of being further criticised and isolated.

In 2023, the Group of 7 and Group of 20 summits are being hosted by US partners, while the US will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November. Xi faces a decision about whether to come to San Francisco for Apec, creating an additional incentive to stabilise relations.

On the home front, the Chinese economy was hit hard by draconian Covid-19 lockdowns that sparked an eruption of public protests across China in November. These and other disruptions have chastened many foreign investors who are moving their export-oriented production out of China. All of this comes on top of high youth unemployment, a shrinking population and more.

Late last year, the Chinese leadership reversed course on the “dynamic zero-Covid” policy, albeit chaotically and with a heavy death toll among its elderly. In a similar reversal, Beijing has loosened its grip on the country’s tech and real estate sectors in an effort to recharge the economy.

A nascent foreign policy charm offensive is also in the works, including the friendly welcome Blinken is likely to receive in Beijing. Under these conditions, Beijing needs and wants to stabilise relations with the US, which is a source of leverage for Washington.

Here is what Blinken should do. First and foremost, he should offer a vision for US-China relations premised on two goals: meaningful cooperation on issues such as Ukraine and North Korea and a resumption of dialogue on economic relations and risk reduction. This vision seeks to reground the relationship in a series of common interests while not pulling punches on the national security issues that matter to the US.

The US-China relationship needs both stability and a direction. Otherwise, the competitive impulses and domestic politics of both sides will take control.

Specifically, Blinken should push for reopening regularised consultations on the US-China trade and investment relationship. In 2021, goods trade between the US and China nearly exceeded US$700 billion, and 2022 might have been bigger. This is perhaps the most common of interests but also one that faces challenges which need managing.

Washington should push for new and better channels between diplomats and military officials on risk management in the relationship. The probability of an accident or miscalculation is rising as the two militaries come into greater contact with each other.

Would a Cold War-style agreement help prevent China-US tensions from escalating?

This needs to be among Blinken’s top priorities. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow only agreed to such steps after the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Washington and Beijing should avoid the same fate.

To be sure, dialogue is just that. Calls for dialogue need to be matched with negotiations on practical and tangible cooperation on the greatest challenges in the relationship. These include working on issues such as Chinese aid to Russia, North Korea’s nuclear programme and illicit narcotic trafficking.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends a meeting with then Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia in July last year. Photo: POOL / AFP

Progress in other areas important to Washington – such as ratcheting down China’s coercive actions towards Taiwan and seeing improvement in Beijing’s human rights record – is unlikely. Instead, Blinken should not hesitate to affirm US positions on these and other areas of difference while also restating long-standing US policy that it does not seek conflict with China or want to change its system of government.

In return, Beijing will need to likewise concede that it respects and does not seek to displace US presence and interests as an Indo-Pacific power.

Some or all of these outcomes will help stabilise US-China ties, but they will not resolve the deep-seated and increasingly contentious differences which define this relationship. Rather, the two sides still face a long period of intense competition across many domains.

In such an era, Washington should pursue even small steps that can alleviate tensions, especially when it can negotiate from a position of strength. This visit comes at the right moment to do so.

Dr Bates Gill is executive director of Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis

Evan S. Medeiros is a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis. He is a former National Security Council director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia and special assistant to president Barack Obama