How will Beijing react to the US pushing its buttons with the Taiwan Policy Act?
- Washington’s plan to upgrade ties with Taiwan, much like Nancy Pelosi’s trip to the island, makes it clear there will be no letup on China
- While Beijing is likely to bide its time and continue using salami slicing tactics, if the US tries to ‘Ukrainise’ Taiwan, Washington cannot expect to sit out the ensuing war
Moreover, the trip showed that the US remains unreceptive to the notion that its diplomacy requires some degree of realist finesse. Or, perhaps more than that, it underscored a belief that America, an empire of truly global reach, is capable of creating its own reality that others must adapt to, as Zbigniew Brzezinski, the late US national security adviser, once worriedly observed.
In a nutshell, the legislation redefines the US’ position towards Taiwan: it accords it quasi-diplomatic status by rebranding Taipei as Taiwan, treats it as a Nato-like ally, and makes military aid fully open-ended.
It has been reported that Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to Washington, cautioned US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in a meeting on August 23 against the passing of the bill, warning that the Sino-US relationship would “disintegrate” under its weight.
Yet Beijing should harbour no delusions about such warnings being heeded by the White House, especially after what happened with Pelosi. The Chinese side remained hopeful until almost the last minute that her Taiwan trip would not go ahead, but it overestimated Biden’s leadership.
This characteristically gentle nudge by Biden’s team only resulted in two revisions worthy of note: the rebranding of Taipei as Taiwan is now “suggested”, not “required”, by Congress; and the demand for appointees to the American Institute in Taiwan to require endorsement by Congress, as with other ambassadorial posts, has been dropped.
One can therefore safely predict that the bill is set to become law by the time the current Congress session ends in January. Biden won’t even bother to veto it in anticipation of being overruled by a majority vote in Congress.
During this time, developments in the US and the world may lead to an abatement of US hostility towards a China determined to manufacture and sell its way up to the position of superpower.
With this “decisive decade” (in Biden’s words) passing, there is a chance that Washington may see the world less from a binary perspective, as if a crusade were going on.
There is a catch, though. While China manifests its willingness to rise peacefully and patiently, Washington may still be on tenterhooks and manoeuvre to push China off-course and into a war with the “Ukrainisation” of Taiwan, thus decisively arresting China’s ascent.
Washington may be tempted to think that Beijing will play the game the way Russia has done in Ukraine, with the US and its allies safely outside the war zone looking on as China becomes bogged down.
Washington should believe this at its own peril. China’s sinews stretch over much of the world, while its elites, whose inherited political acumen has been honed for thousands of years, put up a united front against an avowedly hostile America. It will put these assets to good use to pull Washington into a war in a forced showdown.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics