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A protester in London holds a placard with an image of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on December 8 last year. Johnson has been fined for violating coronavirus lockdown rules in 2020 by attending a number of gatherings, including his own birthday party. Photo: AP
Opinion
Andrew Hammond
Andrew Hammond

‘Partygate’ fines won’t spark a challenge on Boris Johnson’s UK leadership – yet

  • While the Ukraine crisis has temporarily pushed the scandal out of the limelight, the fines slapped on Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak for breaking their own Covid-19 rules further eroded public support for the government
  • They are unlikely to be enough to spark a revolt among the ruling Conservatives, but that may change if the party does badly in next month’s local elections
Andrew Hammond
Andrew Hammond
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Former Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson, in 1964, famously coined the phrase, “a week is a long time in politics”. Almost six decades later, the relevance of Wilson’s remark has been shown as the UK government faces a series of unsettling revelations concerning Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak, the UK’s two top ministers.

They have culminated with the disclosure on Tuesday that both have now paid fixed penalty notices issued by the police for violating coronavirus lockdown laws. The payment of the fines is an admission that they broke the laws they themselves made in office, and there are growing calls for them both to resign.

Tuesday’s bombshell caps off a woeful week for the government which has featured a continuous drip of tax-related revelations about Sunak’s family finances. Sunak, who had been seen as the favourite to become prime minister after Johnson steps down, is badly on the political back-foot.

Not only was his wife, Indian billionaire heiress Akshata Murty, pressured last week to start paying UK tax on her overseas earnings after it was revealed that she holds non-domiciled status, but Sunak referred himself to the Downing Street ethics adviser over claims he has not been transparent about his tax arrangements.

While some have already declared Sunak’s chances of becoming prime minister to be over, it is not yet clear what the longer-term implications of the revelations will be. However, in the shorter term, there is little question that the episode is bad news for the government.

It took Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to stabilise Johnson’s position after weeks of negative speculation over his future. The “partygate” scandal in Downing Street developed into a frenzy at the start of the year. So far, police have issued at least 50 fines for breaches of lockdown regulations at gatherings in Whitehall and Downing Street, including to Johnson and Sunak.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak speaks at the House of Commons in London on March 23. Sunak, who had been seen as the favourite to become prime minister after Johnson steps down, is embroiled in a growing scandal over his family’s finances. Photo: Handout via Reuters

This has gone down badly with the UK public, as shown in two snap polls on Tuesday. One from Savanta ComRes found more than half of the population think Johnson should resign. Another from YouGov found 75 per cent think the prime minister lied about breaking lockdown rules, and 57 per cent think he should resign.

The latest revelations are a big blow as, since the Ukraine conflict began, media attention had inevitably shifted from domestic scandals. They have also hit the government amid a wider backlash. Indeed, since last May’s local election success for the Conservatives across much of England, the ruling party has faced political headwinds.

Most recently, these problems have been economic in nature, with the UK facing a cost-of-living crisis due to rampant inflation and weaker economic growth. The main beneficiary of these circumstances is the Labour Party, which has opened up a significant lead in polls.

Morning commuters make their way across London bridge. The UK is facing a cost-of-living crisis due to rampant inflation and weaker economic growth. Photo: Bloomberg

Some two-and-a-half years after Johnson’s landslide general election victory in 2019, the government is significantly weakened. What is increasingly clear is that while the prime minister may be one of the best campaigners in UK politics with his capacity to use simple slogans like “Get Brexit done” to cut through to the electorate, his ability to govern is much weaker.

While Johnson has long had critics within the ruling Conservatives, there is growing disquiet over whether he can make it through 2022, let alone the next general election. Indeed, were it not for the Ukraine crisis, there may well have been a leadership challenge within the party by now.

When he scored his election win, it was widely forecast that he could remain in office for much of the 2020s, yet the roller coaster ride that his premiership is proving to be means his term could yet end far sooner. This is not just because of Johnson’s stumbling performance during the pandemic.

With Boris Johnson in peril over ‘partygate’, who could step in as UK PM?

Barring further dramatic revelations, it is likely that Johnson and Sunak are safe politically at least until after next month’s local elections. However, if the results are exceptionally poor, the mood in the Conservative Party may shift.

Unless he can turn a political corner fast, the storm facing Johnson may yet see his prime ministership come to a premature and ignominious ending.

Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

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