China can learn to live with its shrinking population, but it can’t stop the trend

Changing mindsets among young couples and the high economic costs of raising a family are driving China’s population growth slowdown
The right technological advances, government policies and commitment to preserving the environment and people’s well-being can slow the decline

Paul Yip

Published: 8:45am, 26 Jan 2022

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The latest figures from mainland China show that population growth has slowed, and the country’s overall population could start to decline very soon. China is still the world’s most populous country, with more than 1.4 billion people, but births fell from 12 million in 2020 to 10.62 million last year despite population control policies being further relaxed.

Despite the government promoting a three-child policy with more generous benefits, China’s birth rate fell to a record low of 7.52 births per 1,000 people last year, down from 8.52 in 2020. This continued decline almost certainly stems from a changing mindset among young couples and the high economic costs of raising a family in modern China, with some young people preferring to join the “lying flat” movement rather than getting married.

Analysis shows that the impact of fewer people getting married and more delaying marriage has a much larger effect on total births than small family size.

Also, encouraging married couples to have their first child is far more important than asking those with two children to have a third, since the latter has less effect and is more difficult. The emphasis should be on getting young people married and encouraging couples to have their first child.

However, the likelihood of people getting married at a relatively young age has decreased significantly in the past 40 years. In 1982, the average age at first marriage for a man was 25 .5 years; for women, it was 22.8 years. The median age of marriage has risen since then, with the proportion of single young people growing steadily higher.

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As a result, the average household size on the mainland has shrunk from 3.96 in 1990 to 2.62 in 2020. This phenomenon could be why Pope Francis recently said couples who have pets rather than children are “selfish”, calling on people to have more children in the face of slowing population growth and lamenting Italy’s declining birth rate as a “tragedy”.

A 2017 Family Planning Association of Hong Kong survey of married couples found that a third of married women only wanted one child. For some, not having more children is a pragmatic compromise rather than selfishness.

Married couples who have dual incomes and no children certainly have more disposable income to enjoy their lives than those who choose to have children. These couples should contribute more to the system through taxation to help those families who are struggling to put food on the table for their children.

China needs more young people to sustain its economic development and achieve sustainable population growth. It has done well so far in adapting by promoting more automation in manufacturing to help reduce the need for more bodies in the workforce.

Technological advances have led to substantial increases in productivity, helping make up for shortfalls created by slowing population growth and an ageing workforce. The level of GDP growth China has achieved is remarkable as studies suggest you need to increase productivity at least eightfold to achieve such a result.

Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan are also experiencing low levels of population growth. This has become the norm, rather than the exception, for high-income countries across Asia.

Immigration can be a wild-card factor for countries, and it has been important in determining population growth. However, China struggles to compete effectively in the race to attract global talent compared to its Western counterparts. China and other countries around the region are losing local talent to the likes of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia.

These high-income Western countries have managed to mitigate the effects of low birth rates and an ageing workforce through immigration. Any government struggling with population growth should devise plans to enhance its human capital, whether through providing more training for local talent, attracting immigrants or both.

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We need to put innovative measures in place to deal with the challenges of increasing numbers of older adults. Recent advances in gerontechnology – technology to improve the livelihoods of older people – are much needed, but even so we are still falling behind the curve.

The affordability and sustainability of any new technology to aid older adults need to be established well in advance, especially for those who do not have support from their children or family. We must work smart and hard to stop the loss of local talent to other countries and make ourselves more attractive to talent from abroad.

Income inequality and disparities between urban and rural areas have become serious social issues in China and other Asian countries. In addition, economic development has come at the expense of the environment, with air, water and land pollution becoming a major public health concern in many high-income Asian countries.

We must be smart in how we seek to resolve these challenges while also maintaining economic growth. We may still have a chance to mitigate these population trends through the use of technological advances, the right government policies and commitment to preserving the environment and people’s well-being.

The window to do so is closing quickly, though. We cannot bet on reversing the trend of slowing population growth, but we can reduce the rate of its decline and buy more time to make the proper preparations.

Paul Yip is a chair professor (population health) in the Department of Social Work and Social Administration and an associate dean in the Faculty of Social Science at the University of Hong Kong