Time is running out for Joe Biden to knit fraying US democracy back together

US president faces a tall task in generating unity in the face of raw partisan animosity and Republican voters convinced his presidency is illegitimate
His State of the Union address is a chance to establish stronger governing themes for his presidency and find common ground with Republicans

Andrew Hammond

Published: 1:30am, 6 Jan 2022

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Last year’s January 6 riot on Capitol Hill is widely seen as the nadir of US democracy in modern times, yet there is growing speculation of worse to come if a populist like Donald Trump wins the presidency again.

It is perhaps not surprising that those on the other side of the aisle make this claim. However, concerns are growing well beyond the political class.

Three retired US military generals recently raised the alarm over their fears “about the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for lethal chaos inside our military”, adding that “we are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time”.

It is not just people in the United States who worry about the future of American democracy. Thomas Homer-Dixon, a Canadian scholar of violent conflict, warned this month of the non-trivial possibility of a right-wing dictatorship in the US by 2030. He said the Canadian government should be scenario-planning around this chilling prospect given the impact it would have for other countries.

Incredible as Homer-Dixon’s assertion might appear, he rightly highlights that the US has an increasingly fragile democratic system that is not immune to collapse from populist onslaught.

While it is unlikely that this could happen before 2025, when US President Joe Biden’s current term of office ends, Homer-Dixon argues that the US political and social landscape is “flashing with warning signals” with its increasingly unequal and ideologically polarised nature, plus the fact that the country is “armed to the teeth” given the proliferation of guns.

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Trump supporters storm US Capitol, interrupting Congress’ certification of Biden’s victory

In this context of rancour and discord, a critical question for Biden is how he can best seek to bring increased political conciliation to a country more divided than at any time in living memory.

He has promised to try to bind the wounds of division from the 2020 campaign with a project of national growth and renewal, including reaching out to those Trump supporters who still incorrectly believe that their man was cheated out of re-election.

To his credit, Biden appears to recognise the deeper historical roots of Trump’s success in tapping into popular anger with the political establishment. This stems, especially, from discontented white working-class voters who are angry on multiple fronts, including with significant increases in income inequality since 1980.

Before 2016, these inequalities had limited political consequences, yet income and status differences are potentially significant sources of political change.

Trump demonstrated in 2016, as well as in 2020, that they can be mobilised by insurgent politicians operating either within parties or outside them, as they have been in the past. For instance, Andrew Jackson mobilised such forces in the 1830s, earning him the nickname “King Mob”.

Why Joe Biden is just the president to unite a divided US

The raw partisan animosity facing Biden means his success or failure in the White House will depend in large part on the skill with which he configures his administration and projects the remaining moral authority emanating from his election victory.

The presidency provides him with at least two broad powers. They are that of setting governing themes for his administration – including renewal and unity – and that of creating interactive coalitions among the public and within Congress in support of the administration’s legislative programme, including the Build Back Better bill.

To make the presidency work best for Biden and for the country, he will have to show that he knows how to use these powers even better than in 2021. The first opportunity this year for giving expression to such engagement and reconciliation will come in his State of the Union address in the coming weeks.

This will set the scene for the next 12 months, which might be the last window of opportunity of his presidency to get significant legislation passed in Congress. There is the strong possibility of Republicans retaking one or both chambers in November’s midterm elections.

What Biden needs to do in this upcoming speech is begin to establish stronger governing themes for his presidency, including striving for a greater consensus and the healing of frayed relations, which command popular understanding and support. This will afford him latitude for political development and manoeuvre.

To maximise his prospects of success, Biden also needs to simultaneously cultivate stronger relationships with more Republican legislators in Congress. This will be a tough challenge, but he should do his utmost to bridge the divide.

Despite the formidable political problems Biden now faces, in suitably skilled hands, the presidency can still offer the potential for national renewal and unity at troubled times such as these.

This will be a monumental test for him and his administration, given the international challenges he is also facing. He will be most effective if he and his congressional colleagues can avoid overreach and work closely to forge the nucleus of a governing agenda that brings the country together, rather than further apart as under his predecessor.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics