How Hong Kong and Beijing can pick up the pieces after months of tumult
- Fearing the loss of Hong Kong to a separatist movement fuelled by foreign interference, China is determined to act tough even if it risks alienating the man in the street
- Hong Kong must secure both Beijing’s trust and international confidence, while China’s leaders need to figure out Hong Kong’s value to the nation
With the national security law, optimists hope for the end of disorder and arrival of a “second transition”, while pessimists worry about the erosion of the city’s autonomy and freedom. Such starkly opposing sentiments point to the same sad reality where past assumptions behind the “one country, two systems” framework no longer apply.
Such a framework had facilitated Hong Kong’s reunification with China’s socialist mainland in 1997 while keeping British institutional legacy almost intact. It allowed an open international hub to continue to thrive under the rule of law. An East-West hybrid well connected to the Western world was highly valued by China, and vice versa. “Two systems” was hailed as the key to a bright new future.
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What does ‘one country, two systems’ mean?
After two decades, “one country, two systems” is due for a midterm review, given the deteriorating state of governance.
Because of generational change and internal fission, the four main political forces that once helped hold the polity in balance – senior bureaucrats, business and professional elites, the traditional pro-Beijing “patriotic” camp and pan-democrat parties – have all been weakened. Both ends of the political spectrum have gradually been radicalised.
CY Leung amasses Facebook fans attacking Hong Kong officials, opposition alike
The fire and fury on the streets have been portrayed overseas as resistance to repression. There is much local discontent that needs to be properly addressed, yet the bridge to dialogue and reconciliation seems to have been burnt by circumstances and the lack of mutual trust and goodwill, which take time and patience to restore.
Fearing the loss of Hong Kong to a separatist movement fuelled by foreign interference, China is determined to act tough even if it risks alienating the man in the street. China may not get everything right, and international concern is understandable, but the reaction of the US and its close allies exacerbates rather than helps to ease the situation.
Maybe it pays to recall the lesson after the communist victory in mainland China in 1949 when American political and diplomatic circles questioned why the US had “lost” China. Today, China hawks surrounding US President Donald Trump are driving their country into another huge gamble, risking losing China again, this time including Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has a valuable role to play in US-China conflict
Under this order, not only would Beijing be less tolerant of any deviant moves in Hong Kong threatening national interests and unity, but it also expects the city to align better with the national development goals and pay heed to central direction in strategic areas.
After a tumultuous year, the clock cannot be turned back. Hong Kong can ill afford being inward-looking. Its entrepreneurial spirit and competitiveness can only thrive if it remains vibrant as an open and free city under the rule of law. Securing both Beijing’s trust and international confidence is indispensable in the process. Major protagonists have to return to their senses and begin to pick up the pieces.
Beijing has to decide if China still wants a hybrid Hong Kong able to swim in both fresh water and sea water. A new footing needs to be found in the changing context, with more pragmatism about Hong Kong’s value to the nation. A paranoid city is going nowhere. Hong Kong’s future ultimately lies in China’s. Hongkongers should make the best out of that reality.
Anthony Cheung is research chair professor of public administration at the Education University of Hong Kong and a former secretary for transport and housing (2012-17)