Hong Kong needs a win in democratic progress, however small

Mutual distrust between Beijing and the SAR’s democracy campaigners has made meaningful engagement impossible and blocked progress
With Beijing tightening its control and Hong Kong embroiled in the broader US-China stand-off, this stasis is pushing Hong Kong towards a state of despair

Anthony Cheung

Published: 6:15am, 12 Aug 2020

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On reflection, post-1997 Hong Kong charts the history of an uphill battle for democracy. To many, we now seem to be back at square one.

The Basic Law allows for the transition from a partial democracy to full electoral democracy, subject to constitutional review and consensus. This laid the ground for a continuous tug of war between the pan-democratic camp demanding “double universal suffrage” – for electing both the chief executive and the legislature – and Beijing insisting on gradual change and balanced representation.

Mutual distrust made constructive engagement impossible. Beijing would only allow electing the chief executive by universal suffrage if the nomination of candidates was subject to a high threshold and controlled by a Basic Law-prescribed nominating committee, to ensure that only a person who “loves the country and loves Hong Kong” is elected.

After prolonged political confrontation triggered by last year’s anti-extradition-bill protests, often with violence and anti-China sentiments, the hope for dialogue and reconciliation has all but evaporated. Beijing’s immediate damage control measures are to suppress violence through forceful means and impose a national security law on Hong Kong to redraw the political boundaries.

Central government officials have stepped up their supervision over the city as it became clear the Carrie Lam administration and the pro-establishment camp could not stabilise society. That Beijing has stepped in at the risk of eroding local autonomy and inviting international criticism suggests national leaders have lost their patience. To them, Hong Kong is on the verge of collapse.

Although the pan-democrats enjoy popular support, as demonstrated by their landslide victory in district council elections last November, they are seen more as a countervailing force against an unpopular administration than an alternative governing force. Partly due to their misguided strategy, the pan-democrats can no longer play a brokering role in securing a long-term political settlement from Beijing.

Meanwhile, the separatists’ mutual-destruction approach, based on extensive foreign intervention, is delusional.

It is clear the US is waging a new cold war against China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s speech on “Communist China and the Free World’s Future” on July 23 shows it has turned its back on half a century of its policy of engagement. Sensing a threat to its dominance of the post-Cold-War global order, the US is striking first to suppress China’s rise. Hong Kong happens to provide a convenient moral ground.

The sanctions and other measures imposed on Hong Kong by the US and its close allies seek to hit China where it hurts by eroding Hong Kong’s position as a global financial centre and its attractiveness to talent and capital. Stripped of its international and economic prominence, Hong Kong risks being downgraded to just another city of China.

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Until the US learns to reconcile with a new multipolar global reality, we can only hope both the central and local governments avoid any approaches that serve to aggravate the frictions.

The new security law allows for sweeping enforcement powers. It can curb subversive activities but not cure the deep-seated political and social problems, for which a political solution is called for. Security without trust cannot provide a real breakthrough.

Fear, not hubris, behind Beijing’s national security law in Hong Kong

Neither Beijing nor Hongkongers should let the city’s future be destroyed by global geopolitics. Could the controversial postponement of legislative elections by one year be taken as an opportunity for all sides to cool off and contemplate some groundbreaking changes?

Next year is critical as it will kick-start a series of major elections – the Legislative Council election in September, election in December of the committee that chooses the chief executive, and the chief executive election the following March. An election inspires hope for change.

Achieving the best-case scenario in democratic development is virtually impossible. What’s more realistic is to aim to rebuild a limited democracy that can function better and grow. The opportunity for change, even if it is limited and incremental, should not be dismissed out of hand. Some ideas can be considered.

Hong Kong should strive to introduce universal suffrage in the 2022 chief executive election to reinvigorate the government’s authority and strengthen its capacity to embark on bold administrative, social and economic reforms. This will shore up Hong Kong’s executive-led system.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and her team meet the press on May 22 to pledge support for a national security law for Hong Kong, after the draft law was introduced in the Chinese parliament. Photo: Xiaomei Chen

It is an important step because, according to the road map mandated by Beijing, universal suffrage for legislative elections can only be considered if the chief executive is directly elected.

The government’s 2015 constitutional reform blueprint was based on the August 31, 2014 decision of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee. There is no alternative to that framework. Instead of starting public consultation afresh, which is likely to be futile given Hong Kong’s polarised society, it will be more pragmatic to adopt the previous package as the basis.

It has to be passed by a two-thirds majority of the legislature, whose term has just been extended. Hong Kong people will hopefully accept it as a needed compromise. It would give them a direct vote in the chief executive election – better that than endlessly arguing about the best model and getting nowhere.

Is there still room for Hong Kong’s political centre? We’ll soon find out

There is also merit in institutionalising the role of an opposition in the legislature. One way is to establish the positions of majority leader and minority leader, with additional functions, remuneration and staff support. This can facilitate the integration and coordination of parties under two broad umbrellas, thus formalising a two-camp system. The majority and minority leaders can automatically assume the chairmanship and deputy chairmanship of the House Committee.

The 18 district councils should also be reformed. At present, they have only a consultative role. In their place, five to six larger regional councils should be set up, similarly elected by local franchise, with management responsibilities in recreation, amenities, street and market management, and environmental hygiene. Regional commissioners can be politically appointed, drawing on talent from inside and outside the civil service.

Finally, public sector reform should be revived with a new mission: to foster policy and operational innovation, smart management and people-based design that can bring public administration closer to the ordinary people.

The above changes within existing constitutional limits may be brushed off by pan-democratic politicians as window dressing. Some in the pro-establishment camp may consider them too drastic. But in the present gloomy atmosphere, we need some glimpse of light and breakthrough, or else despair may take over. The status quo is not an option.

Anthony Cheung is research chair professor of public administration at the Education University of Hong Kong and a former secretary for transport and housing (2012-17)

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