The trade war won’t shake Xi Jinping’s grip on power in China – for now
- Deng Yuwen says the Chinese leader has been asserting his authority following biting criticism last year of his government’s handling of the trade conflict
- His power is secure, but surely a China that has celebrated 40 years of reform won’t regress to the days when one person could decide the country’s fate
Although strongman rule continued under Deng Xiaoping, he nevertheless stabilised and normalised the national leadership system by establishing a retirement system, term limits and other modern political rules. Before 2018, most people did not think that would change.
After Xi took office, the development of his strongman politics was a gradual process. Early on, public opinion was only that he was the most powerful leader after Mao and Deng.
However, can it be assumed that if China and the United States fail to reach a trade agreement in 2019 and the Chinese economy deteriorates further, Xi’s power base may be greatly affected? Would the one-person leadership system weaken? Could collective leadership of the party be restored?
There are two indicators of whether Xi’s power base has been shaken. One way is to see if he has control over personnel and the other, to see if official propaganda about his ideas is cooling.
Currently, neither the trade war nor other situations seem to have shaken their loyalty. Xi also remains firmly in control of public opinion, with his propaganda mill still running smoothly.
It could be understood that Xi’s leadership is under threat, which is why he is emphasising the importance of maintaining his personal authority and the Central Committee’s leadership. However, even if Xi does feel threatened, the danger is not real but merely psychological. He is warning the leading cadres and senior officials precisely to prevent such a threat to his power.
By and large, Xi has secured his power base after the 19th party congress and the two congresses in 2018. Barring accidents, no force is likely to emerge from within the party to pose an organised challenge to his power, at least not in 2019.
However, there is a ceiling on Xi’s power. Although there is scope within this limit for tightening his grip on China, he is unlikely to go over the limit and follow in Mao’s footsteps entirely.
Deng Yuwen is an independent scholar and a researcher at the China Strategic Analysis Centre Inc. This article was translated from Chinese