Why Trump’s new security strategy on China and Taiwan means the gloves are off in Sino-US rivalry
Michal Thim says the new US national security strategy places relations with China outside ambiguous niceties, with the open declaration of a new era of competition. However, all-out rivalry and peace may yet coexist
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However, Trump’s (reluctant or not) embrace of long-standing alliances is not the primary takeaway from the new policy document.
The strategy openly declares a new era of competition, in which China is called out as a revisionist, rival power. It is a bold declaration, yet also a somewhat late admission that there exists a fundamental rivalry between the US and China.
Policy declarations of the past were more nuanced and attempted to shed a hopeful light on Sino-US cooperative potential. However, to many in Washington and other world capitals, those friendly gestures were wasted by Beijing.
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Thus, the change in US attitude reflects both internal disappointments over the results of more than three decades of engagement with China, and Beijing’s desire to no longer hold back on foreign policy.
Beijing’s intention could have been a return to the framework of China-US-Taiwan relations during the mid-2000s, hoping Washington would treat Taiwan as a troublemaker, as it did back then. However, history is not repeating itself.
On the contrary, Taiwan earned a mention in the security strategy in a section elaborating on priority actions in the Indo-Pacific region: “We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan [by] our ‘One China’ policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan’s legitimate defence needs and deter coercion.” This section does not really say anything new, as it is a statement of a long-held US policy. But not often does it appear so explicitly in an American policy document.
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The bad news for Beijing also is that its long-standing attempts to manipulate Washington into accepting its rigid “One China” principle, instead of America’s flexible “One China” policy, have failed.
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The early days of the Trump administration had seemed to offer a window of opportunity, due to the lack of experienced Asia hands on the team. But the unambiguous wording in the security strategy about Taiwan is a clear message that there have been no changes in US policy, except that China can expect Washington’s more active engagement with Taipei.
The US security strategy places Sino-US relations outside ambiguous niceties, and in many ways reflects a change in attitude that has been brewing among US defence and foreign policy circles from long before Trump became a viable candidate for president.
Based on this clarity, the two powers may attempt to create an environment where competition still exists, but peace is sustainable.
Michal Thim is a Taiwan analyst at the Association for International Affairs (Czech Republic) and a fellow of the Metropolitan Society for International Affairs (US)