Hong Kong firms wary on fourth-quarter air shipments
A survey has shown that companies in Hong Kong that ship goods by air are cautious about the outlook for shipments in the fourth quarter, the traditional peak season, owing to declining orders from Europe and weak demand for luxury goods.
A survey has shown that companies in Hong Kong that ship goods by air are cautious about the outlook for shipments in the fourth quarter, the traditional peak season, owing to declining orders from Europe and weak demand for luxury goods.
The overall air trade volume index, the first of its kind in Hong Kong, compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council and commissioned by DHL Express Hong Kong, has dropped for two consecutive quarters to 51.6 and is 0.7 points lower than in the third quarter.
"Air trade confidence has declined overall due to lacklustre retail sales, notwithstanding air traders' anticipation that pre-Christmas orders may enhance growth during the winter quarter," the survey report said.
The export index fell by 1.2 points to 49.5 amid fragile demand from Europe, emerging markets and for high-value commodities trade. The import index improved slightly, by 0.5 points to 55, compared with the third quarter, driven by modest demand for food and beverages.
The index for luxury goods such as watches, clocks and jewellery dropped sharply from 73 in the second quarter of this year to 47 in the fourth quarter. The drop was largely owing to the softening of demand from Europe, the report said. Gifts, toys and houseware imports also declined amid cooling retail sales.
The dim outlook from the survey in Hong Kong stood in stark contrast to the peak season growth forecasts from US-based courier firms FedEx and UPS.
FedEx said it expected its global shipment volume would exceed 83 million during its busiest week of December 7 to 13, and to exceed 290 million between the last Friday of November and Christmas Eve this year, up 8.8 per cent from last year. Meanwhile UPS said it expected shipments delivered in December this year to grow 11 per cent from a year ago.
William Ng, managing director of UPS Hong Kong and Macau, said the company's Hong Kong export volume had grown by more than 10 per cent in the third quarter.
US retailer Walmart earlier cut its annual net sales growth forecast of this year to 2 to 3 per cent from 3 to 5 per cent, adding to worries over consumer spending in the United States. The courier firms said e-commerce, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, had been a key driver for their shipment volume growth.
Research company eMarketer said it expected worldwide business-to-consumer e-commerce sales to grow 20 per cent to US$1.5 trillion this year, with sales in the Asia-Pacific region reaching US$525.2 billion, and those in North America reaching US$482.6 billion.
This year will be the first time consumers in the Asia-Pacific region will spend more on e-commerce purchases than those in North America, it said.
